This Day On The Street
Continue to site
This account is pending registration confirmation. Please click on the link within the confirmation email previously sent you to complete registration.
Need a new registration confirmation email? Click here

Comin' Up Roses; Subdued Confidence: Best of Kass

NEW YORK ( TheStreet) -- Doug Kass of Seabreeze Partners is known for his accurate stock market calls and keen insights into the economy, which he shares with RealMoney Pro readers in his daily trading diary.

Among the posts this past week were entries about criticizing those bears and the domestic growth.

Please click here for information about subscribing to RealMoney Pro.

Everything's Coming Up Roses!
Originally published on Wednesday, Nov. 27 at 8:21 a.m. EDT.

"I had a dream, a dream about you, baby. It's gonna come true, baby. They think that we're through, but baby,

You'll be swell! You'll be great! Gonna have the whole world on the plate! Starting here, starting now, honey, everything's coming up roses!

Clear the decks! Clear the tracks! You've got nothing to do but relax. Blow a kiss. Take a bow. Honey, everything's coming up roses!"

-- Gypsy (Ethel Merman), Everything is Coming Up Roses

Criticism of the bearish cabal is reaching new heights, coincident with the all-time highs in the averages, as the crowd continues to outsmart the remnants.
[Read: <a target="blank" data-add-tracking="true" href=""><em>Bond Bulls Are Back in Control </em></a>]

So is the unquestioned belief (and unquestioning of the believers) of a continued bull market. Here's what Peter Boockvar has to say:

"As measured by the weekly Investors Intelligence survey of newsletter writers, the bullish boat is standing room only while the bear boat has the least amount of passengers dating back to the 1980's. In today's numbers, Bulls rose to 55.7 from 53.6 while the Bears fell to 14.4 from 15.5, an historic low in the history of this survey according to II. Combined with another record high in margin debt in October that puts its ratio to GDP at about 2.4%, near the high of 2.6% in July '07 and 2.8% in March '00 and it's worth noting the historical limits in these two figures that we are pushing up against. That said, this says nothing about where markets go in the short term from here. This Fed hosted party can still have life left but I feel it's always important to have perspective and these two data points should provide reason for an investing gut check in early 2014 in terms of how to be positioned."

After all, who but a few bearish souls doesn't like a bull market?

Yet overvaluation and bubbles are rarely spotted in advance by the "experts."

But let me remind you of something before you believe the bullish mantra, and the musings of the parade of "talking heads" in the business media, and before you borrow and steal everything you can to get fully invested in the market (and then some!). Of those who are singing, "Everything Is Coming Up Roses," few of those souls in the chorus will likely give you a signal when the music stops.
[Read: <a target="blank" data-add-tracking="true" href=""><em>Digging Into the Dow; Buyable Oil Stocks: Jim Cramer's Best Blogs </em></a>]

Here is the legendary Louis Rukeyser from Wall Street Week, who interviewed a couple of "winners" and bulls at the end of the dot-com stock-market boom in late 1999.

Sic transit gloria.

Subdued Confidence
Originally published on Tuesday, Nov. 26 at 12:04 p.m. EDT.

The current consumer readings are not signaling robust domestic growth.

The November Conference Board Index dropped to 70.4. consensus expectations were at 72.6 and October came in at 72.4.

The current reading is the lowest in eight months.

Within the Index, the assessment of current conditions dropped by only 0.6 point, but assessment of future conditions declined by a relatively large 3 points (year over year). This bodes poorly for an acceleration in consumer spending.
[Read: <a target="blank" data-add-tracking="true" href=""><em>Pell Grants: Last Line of Defense Against the Dumb-But-Rich?</em></a>]

The labor component of the Index was slightly better. Those saying jobs were plentiful rose to 11.8% from 11.6% in October, while those saying jobs were hard to get dropped to 34% from 34.9%. But just 13% of respondents think that more jobs will be available six months from now.

Check Out Our Best Services for Investors

Action Alerts PLUS

Portfolio Manager Jim Cramer and Director of Research Jack Mohr reveal their investment tactics while giving advanced notice before every trade.

Product Features:
  • $2.5+ million portfolio
  • Large-cap and dividend focus
  • Intraday trade alerts from Cramer
Quant Ratings

Access the tool that DOMINATES the Russell 2000 and the S&P 500.

Product Features:
  • Buy, hold, or sell recommendations for over 4,300 stocks
  • Unlimited research reports on your favorite stocks
  • A custom stock screener
Stocks Under $10

David Peltier uncovers low dollar stocks with serious upside potential that are flying under Wall Street's radar.

Product Features:
  • Model portfolio
  • Stocks trading below $10
  • Intraday trade alerts
14-Days Free
Only $9.95
14-Days Free
Dividend Stock Advisor

David Peltier identifies the best of breed dividend stocks that will pay a reliable AND significant income stream.

Product Features:
  • Diversified model portfolio of dividend stocks
  • Updates with exact steps to take - BUY, HOLD, SELL
Trifecta Stocks

Every recommendation goes through 3 layers of intense scrutiny—quantitative, fundamental and technical analysis—to maximize profit potential and minimize risk.

Product Features:
  • Model Portfolio
  • Intra Day Trade alerts
  • Access to Quant Ratings
Real Money

More than 30 investing pros with skin in the game give you actionable insight and investment ideas.

Product Features:
  • Access to Jim Cramer's daily blog
  • Intraday commentary and news
  • Real-time trading forums
Only $49.95
14-Days Free
14-Days Free


Chart of I:DJI
DOW 17,631.57 -29.14 -0.17%
S&P 500 2,049.70 -0.93 -0.05%
NASDAQ 4,716.1060 -0.9880 -0.02%

Our Tweets

Free Reports

Top Rated Stocks Top Rated Funds Top Rated ETFs