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Holiday Sales, Housing Recovery Are Key to Recovery

By the end of the week we will have an excellent read on potential holiday sales from 18 retailers.

Courtesy of MetaStock Xenith

According to the Florida Retail Federation holiday sales in the Sunshine State are projected to rise by 4.5% out-pacing a national rise of 3% to 4%. The reason cited is an above normal boom in visitors this year.

The National Association of Home Builders Housing Market Index for November came in at 54, which is unchanged from a downward-revised index in October.

The HMI has been above 50 for six consecutive months, which indicates that homebuilders think that the market for single family homes is 'good'. The NAHB indicates that Congress is holding back the housing market due to the pending decisions on the budget, taxes, government spending and the costs related to the Affordable Care Act. In addition, builders still face rising construction costs and low appraisals.

Tomorrow we get a read on Existing Home Sales for October and the projected annual pace is expected to be 5.3 million. This will be followed by Housing Starts for October next Tuesday and the projected annual rate for this release is 925,000 units. Due to the partial government shutdown we did not get the reading for Housing Starts in September. The NAHB estimated that the September pace for single-family homes was 625,000. It would not be surprising to see these numbers below these expectations.

The Housing Index (HGX) (182.93) is showing that the housing bubble may be re-inflating as this index tries to have a daily close above its 200-day SMA at 184.32. The 2013 high at 210.01 was set on May 20 with the 2013 low set at 164.03 on Aug. 15. Weekly and semiannual value levels are 181.37 and 180.52 with a monthly pivot at 185.77.

Courtesy of MetaStock Xenith

At the time of publication the author held no positions in any of the stocks mentioned.

This article is commentary by an independent contributor, separate from TheStreet's regular news coverage.

Richard Suttmeier is the chief market strategist at AlphaPlus Analytics in addition to ValuEngine.com. He has been a professional in the U.S. Capital Markets since 1972, transferring his engineering skills to the trading and investment world.

Suttmeier has an engineering degree from Georgia Tech and a Master of Science degree from Brooklyn Poly. He began his career in the financial services industry in 1972 trading U.S. Treasury securities in the primary dealer community. He became the first long bond trader for Bache in 1978, and formed the Government Bond Department at LF Rothschild in 1981, helping establish that firm as a primary dealer in 1986. This experience gives him the insights to be an expert on monetary policy, which he features in his newsletters, and market commentary.

Suttmeier's industry licenses include, Series 7 and Registered Principal (Series 24). He has been the Chief Market Strategist for ValuEngine.com since 2008 and often appears on financial TV.

Click here for details on Suttmeier's "Buy and Trade" investment strategy.

Richard Suttmeier can be reached at RSuttmeier@Gmail.com
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