NEW YORK (Real Money) -- If you listen to John Chambers on the Cisco (CSCO) call -- and may I suggest you do so if you want to hear a late-stage-Tom-Landry-meets-a-waning-hours-of-Willie-Mays all in one call -- then you would believe emerging markets are falling off a cliff.
Get these numbers: Brazil is at minus 25%; Mexico is minus 18%; India is minus 18%; China is minus 18%; and Russia is minus 30%.
That's amazingly bad. Of course, Chambers, a perennial cheerleader in a total "wait until next year mode," says he expects to see a return to growth in a few quarters. You may believe that or you may not.
Not for a moment am I excusing Chambers. You don't get that kind of downturn without pushing the wrong product to the wrong people on the wrong days with the wrong management in a wrong way. I put in the "wrong way" element so I could have five wrongs in a sentence, and we know that five wrongs don't make a right.But I mention those declines because, if there is one thing that's for certain, it's that the U.S. is leading the developing market and maybe even the emerging market in growth, and it is a telling concept to be the leader. We have the most dysfunctional government of any of those, with the possible exception of Brazil -- although I am not even sure that Brazil isn't worse than us. We have the worst government for business climate of any of these countries. I would regard our government as just plain hostile to what business needs most -- an agnostic Washington that stays the heck out of the way but, perhaps, would at least allow businesses to repatriate without confiscation. We have the worst corporate tax rate of any of those countries. The only thing we are more probusiness on, compared with these countries, is our unwillingness to punish individuals for their actions at the banks. We punish the shareholders. Sometimes I long for Chinese justice. Still, the takeaway is clear: The U.S., be it in retail, in manufacturing, in oil and gas, in consumer packaged goods, or, yes, even technology, is the clear winner right now in spite of the government. Keep that in mind when you see our stock market go up when the others are going down or treading water. The order books of Cisco must be littered with cancellations and lost business to others. But even the now-legendarily poorly run and poorly executing, once-savvy tech giant of all things Internet is a bit of a barometer about how poor business is in the growth portion of the world's economies: the Internet, social and mobile. It's bizarre, it's counterintuitive and it's still not producing enough jobs, but the U.S. economy is on far firmer footing relative to the rest of the once-growth portion of the world. It's about time we started realizing it before the stock market continues to advance simply by the default of Brazil, Russia, India and China -- the BRICs -- which, BRIC by BRIC, seem to be falling apart to this once-house-of-straw that is the U.S. At the time of publication, Action Alerts PLUS, which Cramer co-manages as a charitable trust, was long CSCO.
Editor's Note: This article was originally published at 7:45 a.m. EST on Real Money on Nov. 14.
Select the service that is right for you!COMPARE ALL SERVICES
- $2.5+ million portfolio
- Large-cap and dividend focus
- Intraday trade alerts from Cramer
- Weekly roundups
Access the tool that DOMINATES the Russell 2000 and the S&P 500.
- Buy, hold, or sell recommendations for over 4,300 stocks
- Unlimited research reports on your favorite stocks
- A custom stock screener
- Upgrade/downgrade alerts
- Diversified model portfolio of dividend stocks
- Alerts when market news affect the portfolio
- Bi-weekly updates with exact steps to take - BUY, HOLD, SELL
- Real Money + Doug Kass + 15 more Wall Street Pros
- Intraday commentary & news
- Ultra-actionable trading ideas
- 100+ monthly options trading ideas
- Actionable options commentary & news
- Real-time trading community
- Options TV