NEW YORK ( TheStreet) -- Over the past six months or so I have been suggesting that investors book stock market profits and raise cash to at least 50% of assets that would normally be invested in stocks.
My main reason for caution is that I believe that Federal Reserve policy is creating a stock market bubble. Fundamentally, this thought is supported by the ValuEngine valuation warning that continues to intensify. We now show that 84.4% of all stocks are overvalued with 52.9% overvalued by 20% or more. All 16 sectors are overvalued with 12 overvalued by 22% to 33.6%.
The technicals are now overbought on the weekly charts for the five major averages I follow. This week the Dow Industrial Average joined the S&P 500, Nasdaq, Dow transports and Russell 2000 with a 12x3x3 weekly slow stochastic reading at 80.68 above the 80.00 overbought threshold. The Dow's five-week modified moving average is 15,509. This configuration makes the weekly chart for the Dow positive but overbought.Investors should consider these 12 Dow components as a portion of a 50% allocation to stocks. One of the stocks is undervalued by 13.6% and the other 11 are overvalued by 6.0% to 30%. One of the stocks is down 3.3% over the last 12 months, while nine have gains of 10.5% to 43.9%. Three are below their 200-day simple moving averages while nine are above.
Reading the TableOV/UN Valued: Stocks with a red number are undervalued by this percentage. Those with a black number are overvalued by that percentage according to ValuEngine. VE Rating: A "1-engine" rating is a strong sell, a "2-engine" rating is a sell, a "3-engine" rating is a hold, a "4-engine" rating is a buy and a "5-engine" rating is a strong buy. Last 12-Month Return (%): Stocks with a red number declined by that percentage over the last 12 months. Stocks with a black number increased by that percentage.
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