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Discount Retailers Holding Up Despite Weak Consumer Confidence

Value Level: Price at which to enter a GTC limit order to buy on weakness. The letters mean; W-weekly, M-monthly, Q-quarterly, S-semiannual and A-annual.

Pivot: A level between a value level and risky level that should be a magnet during the time frame noted.

Risky Level: Price at which to enter a GTC limit order to sell on strength.

Big Lots (BIG) ($36.88 vs. $37.09 on Sept. 30) is down 0.6% since my Oct. 1 post and stayed above its 200-day SMA at $35.29 on Friday. My quarterly pivot is $36.41 with a monthly risky level at $37.51.

Costco (COST) ($123.02 vs. $115.17 on Sept. 30) is up a solid 6.8% since my Oct. 1 post and set a new multi-year high at $124.74 on Thursday. My weekly value level is $119.25 with a quarterly pivot at $121.21 and monthly risky level at $124.31, which was tested at the high.

Dollar General (DG) ($58.01 vs. $56.46 on Sept. 30) is up 2.7% since my Oct. 1 post, and moved back above its 50-day SMA at $57.69 on Monday. The multi-year high was set at $59.87 on Oct. 25. My semiannual value level is $56.50 with a semiannual pivot at $56.97 and monthly risky level at $59.07.

Dollar Tree (DLTR) ($59.06 vs. $57.16 on Sept. 30) is up 3.3% since my Oct. 1 post and is above its 50-day SMA at $57.51 after setting a new multi-year high at $60.19 on Oct. 22. My semiannual value level is $52.56 with a monthly risky level at $60.41.

Family Dollar (FDO) ($68.54 vs. $72.02 on Sept. 30) is the biggest loser down 4.8% since my Oct. 1 post. The stock has been below its 50-day SMA at $70.88 since Oct. 7 but is above its 200-day SMA at $64.93. My annual value level is $49.09 with a weekly pivot at $68.32 and semiannual risky level at $73.03, which failed to hold after the stock set a multi-year high at $75.29 on Sept. 19.

Ross Stores (ROST) ($78.50 vs. $72.80 on Sept. 30) is up a solid 7.8% since my Oct. 1 post and set a new multi-year high at $79.06 on Nov. 5. My annual value level is $54.56 with a semiannual pivot at $79.86 and semiannual risky level at $82.91.

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