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Discount Retailers Holding Up Despite Weak Consumer Confidence

NEW YORK ( TheStreet) -- The retail-wholesale sector may be 26% overvalued according to but maintains an overweight sector rating with 80.9% of the 345 stocks sporting buy ratings. These stocks have been holding up well despite weakening consumer confidence.

In addition to covering the discount retailers my Oct. 1 post, Discount Retailers Should Hold Up in a Risky Market I also set the stage for the conditions that would lead to a new set of highs for the five key equity averages. The Nasdaq ended the first week of October above my semiannual pivot at 3759, which was my scenario to look for a new set of market highs.

The Dow Industrial Average set a new all-time intra-day high at 15,797.68 on Nov. 7. The S&P 500 set its all-time intra-day high at 1775.22 on Oct. 30. The Nasdaq set its multi-year intra-day high at 3966.71 on Oct. 30. The Dow transportation average set its intra-day all-time high at 7131.80 on Nov. 4. The Russell 2000 set its intra-day all-time high at 1123.26 on Oct. 30.
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All nine discount retailers continue to have buy ratings and all are overvalued. Four are overvalued by 17.9% to 27.2%. Six have gained between 24.2% and 56.0% over the last 12 months. One is below its 200-day simple moving average, one is just above it, and seven are above their 200-day SMAs reflecting the risk of a reversion to the mean.
[Read: <a target="blank" data-add-tracking="true" href=""><em> Why Are Gas Prices So Low?</em></a>]

Reading the Table

OV/UN Valued: Stocks with a red number are undervalued by this percentage. Those with a black number are overvalued by that percentage according to ValuEngine.

VE Rating: A "1-engine" rating is a strong sell, a "2-engine" rating is a sell, a "3-engine" rating is a hold, a "4-engine" rating is a buy and a "5-engine" rating is a strong buy.

Last 12-Month Return (%): Stocks with a red number declined by that percentage over the last 12 months. Stocks with a black number increased by that percentage.

Forecast 1-Year Return: Stocks with a red number are projected to decline by that percentage over the next 12 months. Stocks with a black number in the table are projected to move higher by that percentage over the next 12 months.
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