Geron has not disclosed the nature of these imetelstat responses, which is why the reveal of the ASH abstract on Thursday is such a big deal.
Investors want to see partial remissions (PRs) in the imetelsat abstract. Complete remissions (CRs) would be amazing but perhaps less likely because the drug's mechanism of action isn't well suited to reducing spleen size.
So, look for PRs in the ASH abstract. The more PRs, the better, and the more likely Geron's stock rally will continue. Just note that at Monday's close of $4.01, Geron is already worth more than $500 million, raising the risk of a stock sell off regardless of how good the imetelstat data look.
But Geron shares will almost certainly fall -- and far -- if imetelstat only manages to produce clinical improvements (CIs) in the Tefferi study. This outcome won't differentiate imetelstat enough from Jakafi to matter much.For those interested in how CIs, PRs and CRs are measured in myelofibrosis studies, here's an outline, courtesy of Geron: -- Reported by Adam Feuerstein in Boston. Follow Adam Feuerstein on Twitter.
Select the service that is right for you!COMPARE ALL SERVICES
- $2.5+ million portfolio
- Large-cap and dividend focus
- Intraday trade alerts from Cramer
- Weekly roundups
Access the tool that DOMINATES the Russell 2000 and the S&P 500.
- Buy, hold, or sell recommendations for over 4,300 stocks
- Unlimited research reports on your favorite stocks
- A custom stock screener
- Upgrade/downgrade alerts
- Diversified model portfolio of dividend stocks
- Alerts when market news affect the portfolio
- Bi-weekly updates with exact steps to take - BUY, HOLD, SELL
- Real Money + Doug Kass Plus 15 more Wall Street Pros
- Intraday commentary & news
- Ultra-actionable trading ideas
- 100+ monthly options trading ideas
- Actionable options commentary & news
- Real-time trading community
- Options TV