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Geron: Super Important Imetelstat Data Coming Thursday

Stocks in this article: GERN INCY

GERN Chart GERN data by YCharts

Investors will get a first look at data from an early study of Geron's (GERN) imetelstat in myelofibrosis on Thursday when the American Society of Hematology makes research abstracts to its December annual meeting available online.

At this risk of overselling, these imetelstat data are super important because they will either justify Geron's incredible 180% stock surge over the past two months or make a fool of those who believed (naively) Geron might be capable of reversing more than two decades of drug development futility.

Imetelstat, a telomerase inhibitor, is Geron's last chance.

Yet there is legitimate buzz surrounding imetelstat going into Thursday's ASH abstract release because the drug may have legitimate disease-modifying potential in bone marrow cancers like myelofibrosis.

Incyte's (INCY) Jakafi is approved to treat myelofibrosis but only provides symptomatic relief -- mainly by reducing the size of a patient's enlarged spleen, a hallmark of the disease.

Imetelstat, on the other hand, may prove to be effective in the bone marrow, meaning the drug could to slow or even stop the malignancies which cause diseases like myelofibrosis.

Here's a simple way to think about imetelstat's potential: Neither Jakafi nor any other similar (JAK inhibitor) drugs being studied in myelofibrosis today are capable of producing a complete remission (CR) or partial remission (PR). At best, these drugs only provide clinical improvement (CI) in myelofibrosis patients.

When the imetelstat ASH abstract is released Thursday, investors will be looking for concrete evidence of patients with CRs or PRs following treatment.

The imetelstat study to be unveiled the ASH meeting is not being run by Geron but instead by noted myelofibrosis expert Dr. Ayalew Tefferi of the Mayo Clinic. Tefferi is also a bit controversial for publicly disdaining Jakafi. Incyte doesn't send him Christmas cards.

What Wall Street knows about the outcome of the imetelstat study to date comes from Geron passing along hints based on what Teferri tells the company.

Here's the Geron slide from its most recent corporate presentation that has investors intrigued:

In Cohort A, which enrolled 11 myelofibrosis patients, two or more responses were observed. This allowed the study to enroll another 11 patients in Cohort B, where once again, two or more responses were recorded. A third cohort of patients is now enrolling.

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