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Homebuilder Trading Opportunities Continue

Stocks in this article: BZH DHI HOV KBH LEN MDC MHO PHM RYL SPF TOL ^HGX

The October reading of the Conference Board Consumer Confidence index was 71.2, the lowest reading since April and well below the September reading of 80.2. Consumer confidence has been below the neutral zone of 90 to 110 since the recession began at the end of 2007. The government shutdown and debt-ceiling crisis were cited as the cause for the latest decline in confidence.

The S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices showed that its 20-City Composite rose by 1.3% sequentially in August in a deceleration from 1.8% sequential rise in July. The year over year gain was a solid 12.8%. The 20-City index is down 22.7% from its June/July 2006 high.

Reading the Table

OV/UN Valued: Stocks with a red number are undervalued by this percentage. Those with a black number are overvalued by that percentage according to ValuEngine.

VE Rating: A "1-engine" rating is a strong sell, a "2-engine" rating is a sell, a "3-engine" rating is a hold, a "4-engine" rating is a buy and a "5-engine" rating is a strong buy.

Last 12-Month Return (%): Stocks with a red number declined by that percentage over the last 12 months. Stocks with a black number increased by that percentage.

Forecast 1-Year Return: Stocks with a red number are projected to decline by that percentage over the next 12 months. Stocks with a black number in the table are projected to move higher by that percentage over the next 12 months.

Value Level: Price at which to enter a GTC limit order to buy on weakness. The letters mean; W-weekly, M-monthly, Q-quarterly, S-semiannual and A-annual.

Pivot: A level between a value level and risky level that should be a magnet during the time frame noted.

Risky Level: Price at which to enter a GTC limit order to sell on strength.

Beazer Homes (BZH) ($18.41 vs. $18.18 on Sept. 25) is trading above its 200-day SMA at $17.68 with a weekly pivot at $19.68 and quarterly risky level at $20.44. Beazer reports quarterly earnings on Nov. 7 and EPS is expected to be 26 cents a share.

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