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Will A Twitter IPO Ignore The Fundamentals And Outperform Like Tesla, Netflix, And Facebook?

Chris Lau and Emily Smykal, Kapitall: It's almost time for the Twitter IPO. Are you looking at the numbers, the hype, or both?

We already know there’s a lot of talk out there about the rapidly approaching Twitter IPO. In fact, we were comparing the social media giant to the Facebook (FB) IPO just two months ago.

[Read more from Kapitall about investing ideas for those uninterested in putting money in tweets.]

Twitter kicked off its investor roadshow in New York City, hoping to raise roughly $1.5 billion upon selling shares valued between $17 and $20 a pop:

twitter ipo data



Source: USA Today

And the New York Stock Exchange, hoping to avoid some of the pitfalls of the Facebook debut, ran a ‘ simulated IPO’ over the weekend. That’s right, Wall Street is so focused on the fate of Twitter’s public listing, that the NYSE ran tests to determine possible effects that could result from the Twitter IPO.

On one hand, it may be comforting for investors to know that the launch of Twitter’s shares is being closely monitored.

But amid all the hype, will some investors miss traditional, tried and true fundamental numbers? Facebook went public at $38 per share. The stock hit more than a few bumps in the road, including dropping to $17 per share.  But now some analysts are setting a target price of $65 for Facebook – and excitement around the company continues to grow.

Do the numbers add up?  Consider some other stocks that have tripled in the last year alone.

Are fundamental ratios even worth considering?

Tesla (TSLA) has almost hit $200, up 400% in 2013 and valued at a price to sales (P/S) ratio of 15.15.  Netflix (NFLX) is up 254% year-to-date and has a P/S of 4.84. Both companies have brought in healthy returns over the last year, outperforming Facebook, which has a higher P/S at 20.44.

​Click on the interactive chart to see returns over time for Tesla, Netflix and Facebook.

A P/S ratio is a valuation metric that compares a stock’s price to what the company generates in revenue. When a company has a low P/S ratio, it means that its price is cheap in relation to the company’s revenue.

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