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Trade-Ideas: Vale (VALE) Is Today's "Roof Leaker" Stock

Editor's Note: Any reference to TheStreet Ratings and its underlying recommendation does not reflect the opinion of TheStreet, Inc. or any of its contributors including Jim Cramer or Stephanie Link.

Trade-Ideas LLC identified Vale ( VALE) as a "roof leaker" (crossing below the 200-day simple moving average on higher than normal relative volume) candidate. In addition to specific proprietary factors, Trade-Ideas identified Vale as such a stock due to the following factors:

  • VALE has an average dollar-volume (as measured by average daily share volume multiplied by share price) of $287.3 million.
  • VALE has traded 11.2 million shares today.
  • VALE is trading at 2.13 times the normal volume for the stock at this time of day.
  • VALE crossed below its 200-day simple moving average.

'Roof Leaker' stocks are worth watching because trading stocks that begin to experience a breakdown can lead to potentially massive losses. Once psychological and technical resistance barriers like the 200-day moving average are breached on higher than normal relative volume, the stock may then be subject to emotional selling from investors that can continue to drive the stock lower. Regardless of the impetus behind the price and volume action, when a stock moves with weakness and volume it can indicate the start of a new, potentially dangerous, trend.

EXCLUSIVE OFFER: Get the inside scoop on opportunities in VALE with the Ticky from Trade-Ideas. See the FREE profile for VALE NOW at Trade-Ideas

More details on VALE:

Vale S.A. engages in the research, production, and marketing of iron ore and pellets, nickel, fertilizers, copper, coal, manganese, ferroalloys, cobalt, platinum group metals, and precious metals in Brazil and internationally. The stock currently has a dividend yield of 2.8%. VALE has a PE ratio of 15.1. Currently there are 5 analysts that rate Vale a buy, 1 analyst rates it a sell, and 5 rate it a hold.

The average volume for Vale has been 18.2 million shares per day over the past 30 days. Vale has a market cap of $84.5 billion and is part of the basic materials sector and metals & mining industry. Shares are down 22.9% year to date as of the close of trading on Friday.

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TheStreetRatings.com Analysis:

TheStreet Quant Ratings rates Vale as a hold. The company's strengths can be seen in multiple areas, such as its largely solid financial position with reasonable debt levels by most measures, good cash flow from operations and expanding profit margins. However, as a counter to these strengths, we also find weaknesses including a generally disappointing performance in the stock itself, deteriorating net income and disappointing return on equity.

Highlights from the ratings report include:

  • The current debt-to-equity ratio, 0.45, is low and is below the industry average, implying that there has been successful management of debt levels. Along with the favorable debt-to-equity ratio, the company maintains an adequate quick ratio of 1.15, which illustrates the ability to avoid short-term cash problems.
  • Net operating cash flow has slightly increased to $4,162.84 million or 2.92% when compared to the same quarter last year. The firm also exceeded the industry average cash flow growth rate of -11.86%.
  • The gross profit margin for VALE SA is rather high; currently it is at 52.79%. Regardless of VALE's high profit margin, it has managed to decrease from the same period last year. Despite the mixed results of the gross profit margin, VALE's net profit margin of 1.24% is significantly lower than the industry average.
  • The company, on the basis of change in net income from the same quarter one year ago, has significantly underperformed when compared to that of the S&P 500 and the Metals & Mining industry. The net income has significantly decreased by 94.9% when compared to the same quarter one year ago, falling from $2,302.44 million to $117.72 million.
  • The share price of VALE SA has not done very well: it is down 14.88% and has underperformed the S&P 500, in part reflecting the company's sharply declining earnings per share when compared to the year-earlier quarter. Looking ahead, other than the push or pull of the broad market, we do not see anything in the company's numbers that may help reverse the decline experienced over the past 12 months. Despite the past decline, the stock is still selling for more than most others in its industry.

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