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Confirming Cycle Highs Remains Elusive

This month's risky level is at an all-time high at 15,932 with semiannual and quarterly risky levels at 16,490 and 16,775. The upside to these levels is 9% and 10.9%, while the downside to the first annual level is 16.1%.

This week, I wrote four articles concerning topping out issues. On Wednesday, I wrote, Tracking Sector ETF Bubble Characteristics where I showed that eight of 11 key sector-oriented exchange-traded funds may have peaked in the Sept. 19/Sept. 20 window.

All 11 ETFs ended Wednesday below their 50-day SMAs. Six popped back above these key levels, while four came back to a test and one stayed below its 50-day SMA. All 11 stayed shy of the risky levels I showed in the table in that report.

Also on Wednesday, I wrote, The Ups and Downs Among Internet Stocks, and surprisingly while these stocks rebounded on Thursday, the upside volatility was muted vs. the recent downside. For example, Google (GOOG) ($868.24 vs. $853.67 on Oct. 9) stayed below my semiannual pivot and risky level at $880.49 and $892.48.

On Thursday, I wrote, 11 Dow Components vs. Their 200-Day Moving Averages, and the stocks that flipped back above their 200-day SMAs are Cisco Systems (CSCO - Get Report), Intel Corp (INTC - Get Report), Pfizer (PFE - Get Report), and Procter & Gamble (PG - Get Report). The overall DJIA tested and held its 200-day as shown above. That reflects that this average experienced a reversion to the mean.

Also on Thursday, I wrote, Four 'Too Big to Fail' Regional Banks Are Above 200-Day SMA where I showed that 22 of the 24 stocks in the regional banking index were below their 50-day SMAs.

Only four of the banks moved back above their 50-day SMAs including the following: Bank of New York (BK - Get Report), First Niagara (FNFG - Get Report), Peoples United (PBCT - Get Report) and US Bancorp (USB - Get Report). Northern Trust (NTRS - Get Report) was the only bank that was below its 200-day SMA and it stayed below.

My semiannual pivot at 3759 on the Nasdaq has been a strong magnet with monthly, semiannual and quarterly risky levels at 15,932, 16,490 and 16,775 Dow Industrials, 1746.4, 1743.5 and 1853.8 S&P 500, 3830 and 4025 Nasdaq, 6811, 7104 and 7205 Dow Transports and 1092.46, 1089.42 and 1163.21 Russell 2000.

My annual value levels remain at 12,696 Dow Industrials; 1348.3 S&P 500; 2806 Nasdaq; 5469 Dow Transports; and 809.54 Russell 2000.

At the time of publication, the author held no positions in any of the stocks mentioned.

This article is commentary by an independent contributor, separate from TheStreet's regular news coverage.

Richard Suttmeier is the chief market strategist at AlphaPlus Analytics in addition to He has been a professional in the U.S. Capital Markets since 1972, transferring his engineering skills to the trading and investment world.

Suttmeier has an engineering degree from Georgia Tech and a Master of Science degree from Brooklyn Poly. He began his career in the financial services industry in 1972 trading U.S. Treasury securities in the primary dealer community. He became the first long bond trader for Bache in 1978, and formed the Government Bond Department at LF Rothschild in 1981, helping establish that firm as a primary dealer in 1986. This experience gives him the insights to be an expert on monetary policy, which he features in his newsletters, and market commentary.

Suttmeier's industry licenses include, Series 7 and Registered Principal (Series 24). He has been the Chief Market Strategist for since 2008 and often appears on financial TV.

Click here for details on Suttmeier's "Buy and Trade" investment strategy.

Richard Suttmeier can be reached at
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BK $39.44 -1.05%
CSCO $29.91 1.42%
FNFG $8.88 0.17%
GOOG $555.48 2.13%
INTC $33.65 -0.87%


DOW 18,214.42 -10.15 -0.06%
S&P 500 2,110.74 -3.12 -0.15%
NASDAQ 4,987.89 +20.7530 0.42%

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