NEW YORK (TheStreet) -- The U.S. stock market continues to trade under the cloud of a ValuEngine valuation warning. In this environment I have been warning about downside risk to the 200-day simple moving averages as a reversion to the mean. Today I profile 11 Dow Industrial Average components that either crossed below their 200-day SMAs, or are close to doing so.
In recent weeks the Dow has been the laggard among the five major equity averages I follow as key to timing a confirmation of a stock market peak.
Stock market strength continues to be artificially propped up by the Federal Reserve's monetary policy of a 0% to 0.25% federal funds rate since Dec. 16, 2008. On Sept. 13, 2012, the Fed launched QE3, the purchase of $40 billion a month of agency mortgage-backed securities, and on Dec. 12, 2012 the Fed added QE4, the purchase of $45 billion a month of longer maturity Treasury notes and bonds. In my opinion these policies have failed and the stock market has become a bubble ready to pop under what I call, 'QE-Fatigue'.
Now that President Obama has nominated Janet Yellen as the next Fed Chairman markets will assume more of the same with regard to continuing this failed monetary policy.The five major equity averages may soon be in sync confirming cycle highs for the stock market with closes this week and next below five-week modified moving averages at 15,121 Dow Industrials, 1675.8 S&P 500, 3703 Nasdaq, 6511 Dow transports and 1051.68 Russell 2000. Among the 11 Dow components in today's table, four have buy ratings and seven have hold ratings. Two are undervalued by 5.3% and 12.6% and nine are overvalued by 6.1% to 32.2%. Two are down 7.6% and 12.9% over the last 12 months with five up between 11.8% and 29.1%. Two have held their 200-day SMAs with four just below and five well below 200-day SMAs. This reflects the reversion to the mean that I have been discussing in my buy-and-trade strategies.
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