NEW YORK ( TheStreet) -- Since Twitter announced it would go public, I have had three people ask me, a total of five or six times, when I planned to publish thoughts on the forthcoming IPO. For a no-name hack such as myself, that's quite a bit of interest, not to mention pressure. Consider it the equivalent -- looking relatively at scale -- of like 300,000 of Jim Cramer's viewers querying as to when he will comment on something.
When something dominates the headlines like the Twitter IPO, I sometimes like to wait for the dust to settle before I publish an article. My hope is to (a) not get lost in the rush of the crowd and (b) after having had time to think, come up with a unique take. Given the drivel spewing on this IPO, I'm not sure (b) is possible. #whatevs.
First, I'm tired of the Facebook (FB) comparisons. That's the easy way to look at this thing.
From a pure IPO standpoint, Twitter will not go down like FB's farcical debut. It's not that the exchanges and underwriters have somehow become competent, it's just that Twitter, from the standpoint of the masses, is a pimple on Facebook's behind. We're not going to have people telling other people to buy TWTR the morning it opens. It will go off like any other major IPO, but without us retail skanks coming in to buy odd or 100-share lots. Fewer orders, less pressure on the system, not as much confusion. Business as usual.What's most important -- and I have only seen obvious surface scratches of this -- is what happens to Twitter long-term. And, any way you slice it, it's not going to be good, at least not for the world, defined as that vacuum that is the Internet. I'll get hammered for even thinking this, but, given the potential Twitter has, on so many levels, it should be protected from the toxic outcomes of becoming a public company beholden to investors. There is no way Twitter can continue to grow as a sociopolitical force around the world and, as an unfiltered source of news and information, as it becomes more commercial. The big televisions networks will, for all intents and purposes, take Twitter over. Dick Costolo isn't stupid; he's making the easy sale. Lots of people will get rich, advertisers will have another conduit to encourage consumption and, some day soon, we'll all tire of Twitter.
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