Now, I'm just speculating here. These are my words and mine only. But I don't believe for a second that ALU is motivated to operate as a standalone entity beyond 2014. It certainly didn't help that Microsoft just announced plans to buy Nokia's (NOK) mobile phone business, along with Nokia's strong patent estate, for 5.44 billion euros ($7.2 billion). As good of a deal as this was, strapped for cash, Nokia had no choice but to sell.
As with ALU, Nokia had been in cost-cutting mode for the past 12 months. Today not only is the company more than $7 billion richer, but it no longer has to worry about Apple (AAPL) and Google (GOOG) -- that's Microsoft's problem now. ALU investors are betting on a similar deal.
I'm not willing to rule out the possibility of a deal for ALU. However, unlike Nokia, which is cash-flow positive and was riding the strength of better-than-expected Lumia device sales, ALU, which recently posted more than $300 million in negative cash flow, doesn't exactly have the same bargaining chips to play. And the company doesn't expect to be cash-flow positive until 2015.
I don't pretend to know ALU's business better than the company's management. But I do question why the company, which still has a strong patent portfolio, does not commit more funding than what it has promised to research and development, especially since it is playing from behind.It would make more sense to leverage the company's current assets and patents to produce competing products to fight off the Ciscos and Cienas of the world, especially since the latter has begun to dominate ALU's core optical networking business. For now, until management shows a clear competitive strategy, I will stay away from this stock. Fiscal awareness alone doesn't make the company any more attractive than it's been. TheStreet Ratings team rates Alcatel-Lucent as a sell. At the time of publication, the author held shares of Apple. Follow @saintssense This article was written by an independent contributor, separate from TheStreet's regular news coverage.