NEW YORK ( Real Money) -- For some companies, a default, or at least a whiff of it, is a terrible thing to waste. There are companies that are so itching to get their hands on their own stocks that any pending selloff might be a remarkable moment for them, as they know that their businesses won't be that badly impacted by even an actual default because they think they have seen the movie before when Lehman defaulted.
So, I think they will buy with both hands, knowing that eventually the government will cure the default, even if it's painful and while nothing saved us from Lehman and the money just vanished.
Now, let's understand each other. A default, an out-and-out default, is cataclysmic and I think the President will not risk being the only president to ever default on the national debt. When history looks back, they won't remember the Speaker of the House, they will remember the president. That's a weighty thing to be tabbed with. But as long as the interest on the debt keeps being paid, in some form or another, even if it means other services really are shut and other payouts really are curtailed, there will be no default. The economy will be crushed. Of that, there can be little doubt. You can't have the $60 billion a day that the government pays out, at least according to the Treasury Secretary, not spent and think the economy won't collapse. That's just a gigantic swath of checks that are no longer in the mail.
At that point, the economic pain will be too hard for even the most obstinate of those who refuse to vote in favor of a debt ceiling increase, so we have to figure things finally budge. Obviously, we hope that it never gets to that. But the idea that it is as unlikely as a meteor hitting Washington or a one in 10 million shot or whatever hyperbole we keep hearing, just flies in the face of the anger, bitterness and rancor that matches the level of partisanship at the time of the Civil War.
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