Global Macro: An Alternative Payroll Report
NEW YORK (TheStreet) -- The government shutdown has caused the Bureau of Labor Statistics to withhold releasing nonfarm payroll numbers today, although of course that doesn't diminish the importance of the data to the economy.
Still, by analyzing trends in employment and using regression models, we can estimate what the jobs number would have looked like.
The first chart below shows the rate of change of the nonfarm payrolls four-month moving average. The indicator trends sideways most of the time unless very positive or negative events are happening in the macro environment.
The sideways action since mid-2010 shows that our economic recovery has been gradual. Employment and gross domestic product have grown steadily over the past few years as investors and consumers have regained confidence.The slowness of the recovery highlights even more why political gridlock is unhealthy for the economy and financial markets. Regression estimates for this month's employment data project growth of 139,000 jobs in the private and government sectors combined.
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