This probably means that a tapering is unquestionably off the table this month and, in all likelihood, off the table in December.
The first opportunity after December is January 2014, but I wouldn't rule out March 2014 as the month that a tapering is initiated.
What to Do?
The market will be heavily influenced by the news over the next two weeks, especially of a government kind.Neither fundamentals nor technicals hold the key. Stated simply, traders/investors don't control their investment destiny during this period of high drama over the next two weeks. It is probably a good time to sit on our hands. Or at least it is time for me to be less exposed. Why risk hard-earned investment capital in a market that has no memory from day to day and that is so dependent on outcomes that we can only guess and can have little conviction about? Two weeks from now, in all likelihood, there will be a resolution in Washington, D.C. And, at that time, we can again refocus on the challenges to sales and corporate profits in the upcoming quarters, which could pose a larger threat than the debates on budget and debt-ceiling issues.
This column originally appeared on Real Money Pro at 7:36 a.m. EDT on Oct. 3.