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[video] Quick Take: Shutdown Could Shake the Markets

NEW YORK ( TheStreet) -- Jill Malandrino of TheStreet talked with Dan Collins, founder of the Dan Collins Report, who said October might be a rougher month than traders expect.

Historically speaking, five of the nine worst crashes in the Dow Jones Industrial Average have come in October, Collins said. A lot of technicians have been saying the markets are ripe for a steep pullback, citing equities as overvalued near these levels.

The government last shutdown about 17 years ago, but it did not last very long. Collins said that if this current shutdown is also short, it shouldn't have a huge effect on the market. However, it is a troublesome development considering October's history.

He said with the debt ceiling debate coming up shortly, this current shutdown will be a problem if it's not over in a couple of days. But what about tapering? Collins noted that Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke was quick to remind the market tapering is data-dependent, and the data have not been overwhelmingly positive in recent months.

Unless the government shutdown is lifted relatively soon, Collins concluded that a taper will not likely take place in October either. It might not happen this year, depending on the data and other events.

Bret Kenwell currently writes, blogs and also contributes to Robert Weinstein's Weekly Options Newsletter. Focuses on short-to-intermediate-term trading opportunities that can be exposed via options. He prefers to use debit trades on momentum setups and credit trades on support/resistance setups. He also focuses on building long-term wealth by searching for consistent, quality dividend paying companies and long-term growth companies. He considers himself the surfer, not the wave, in relation to the market and himself. He has no allegiance to either the bull side or the bear side.

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