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Chinese Housewives vs. Goldman Sachs: No Contest

Stocks in this article: GLD SLV

Goldman Sachs is once again predicting that gold will fall, setting a new near-term target of $1,050.

Never mind the schizophrenic gene that would be required to follow the constantly fluctuating predictions of all these big banks; it's amazing to me that anyone continues to listen to them after their abysmal record and long-standing anti-gold stance.

Sure, the too-big-to-fails can move markets—but they say things that are good for them, not us. As an example, while Goldman Sachs was telling clients and the public to sell gold in the second quarter, they  bought  3.7 million shares of GLD and became  the ETF's 7th largest holder.

When I visited China two years ago, guess who no one was talking about? Goldman Sachs. There was news about the US, of course, but the regular diet of journalistic intake consisted of Chinese activity, not North American. And surprise, surprise, the view from that side of the big blue ball was materially different than what we hear and read here—and in some cases, the opposite.

Not only has the average Chinese housewife, perhaps the most frugal and cautious species of savers in the world, probably never heard of Goldman Sachs and their call for $1,000 gold—if she had, she would think: 垃圾! (Rubbish!)

Here's some evidence. Since January 1, gold ETF holdings have fallen by roughly a quarter (26%, according to GFMS). But Chinese housewives aren't refraining from buying and certainly aren't selling:

The red dotted line represents the total outflows of GLD through last Tuesday. The gold bars are cumulative monthly imports of gold to China, through Hong Kong. You can see that China has absorbed roughly twice what most North American ETF holders have sold. It's actually more than that, because we only have Hong Kong import data up to the end of July.

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