Should I have been able to game what Pogue & Co. were going to say? Wrong question. It didn't matter. The stock was barely up when their recommendations came out. There was plenty of time to switch. You didn't need to anticipate a thing.
But you did have to bet that the critics would matter and that they do have tremendous sway here.
Of course, I was immediately lambasted at @JimCramer on Twitter for changing my mind, even as I said contemporaneously that these reviews were needle-movers, which was the gutsy call. The naysayers are like members of a base that isn't there. They are non-voters in a district that doesn't exist. They are people who either didn't read or didn't see that I had a good trade going in switching direction, or who don't think that directions should ever be switched.
They think they are being intellectually honest, but they are simply being financially barren.Look, at no time is this business about pleasing anyone. It is about getting it right. I liked Apple at $50. If I stayed liking it at $700 and still liked it now, I would be someone who is "true blue" on Apple. But "true blue" to what? Apple's not a country. It's not a flag. It's a company with a stock. You not only have every right to change your mind when something salient happens that can change the direction of the stock. You must change your mind if you are going to be any good and make as much money as possible. Trading stocks is not and has never been about pleasing anyone or getting someone's vote or trying to toe the line through thick and thin. It's about making money. It's undignified. It's not loyal. It's not friendly. It's just a question of "Will I make more money doing X or doing Y?" If you do X and it makes more money than Y, you have succeeded. If you do Y and it makes less money than X, you have failed. The fact that I even have to defend making money shows you that there are plenty of people who think that X and Y don't matter or are the same. They aren't. Which is why so many people lose money in this business and then leave it. They simply don't understand that it's not primary season, it is not an election, they are not single-issue voters and there is no Congress. There's just money. At the time of publication, Action Alerts PLUS, which Cramer co-manages as a charitable trust, was long AAPL.
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