The rebound in crude oil following the Fed statement was $108.99 on Thursday shy of my semiannual pivot at $109.84. Oil traded above the 50-day SMA at $106.71, but is below this key level this morning. The weekly chart is neutral with the five-week MMA at $106.44. A close today below the five-week with momentum still overbought is the neutral configuration. The 200-week SMA is a support at $90.79.
Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLE) ($85.12) traded to a new multi-year high at $85.74 on Thursday in reaction to Wednesday's Fed statement. The 50-day and 200-day SMAs are supports at $82.57 and $78.75. The weekly chart is positive but overbought with the five-week MMA at $82.88 and the 200-week SMA at $68.78. My weekly value level is $81.68 with monthly and semiannual risky levels at $87.91 and $88.35.
My conclusion in my pre-FOMC post Wednesday was simple, "It seems highly likely that all five major averages will power to new highs given a positive reaction to the Fed statement and to comments by Ben Bernanke at his press conference this afternoon."
In my opinion the FOMC decision not to taper will further inflate the equity bubbles and risks re-inflating the gold bubble and oil bubble.The Dow set its new all time high at 15,709.79 on Wednesday. The S&P 500 set its new all-time high at 1729.86 on Thursday. The Nasdaq set a new multi-year high at 3798.15 on Thursday. Dow transports set its new all-time high at 6743.85 on Thursday. The Russell 2000 set its new all-time high at 1080.49 and Wednesday. If the Nasdaq ends this week above its annual and monthly pivots at 3759 and 3772 the upside is to the semiannual risky levels at 16,490 Dow Industrials, 1743.5 S&P 500, 7104 Dow transports and 1089.42 Russell 2000. (DIA) ($156.32) is above its 50-day SMA at $152.83 with the 200-day SMA at $145.69 and the Wednesday high at $157.06. The weekly chart shifts to positive with a weekly close above the five-week MMA at $152.39. My weekly value level is $149.35 with monthly and semiannual risky levels at $163.25 and $164.06.
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