NEW YORK (TheStreet) -- On Wednesday, I prepared traders and investors for the potential volatility following the Federal Reserve statement and to Fed Chief Bernanke's press conference. In my post, How Capital Markets Will React to FOMC News I presented the key levels to focus on for six ETFs that track long-dated Treasuries, gold, crude oil, the Dow Industrial Average the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100.
I have been, and will continue to be, a critic of how the Fed has handled monetary policy in reaction to the Great Credit Crunch. The decision not to begin tapering the QEs just continued to inflate the bubble in the U.S. equity markets. The 0% funds rate and the Quantitative Easing have not worked!
Treasury yields declined to my monthly pivots at 2.725% on the 10-year note and 3.738% on the 30-year bond. If yields end the week below these pivots, lower yields are likely in the weeks ahead. Otherwise, yields can rise again on the fear that monetary policy will fuel inflation.
iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond (TLT) ($104.37). The Treasury ETF rebounded to its 50-day simple moving average at $105.58 in reaction to the Fed statement. A daily close above this key level indicates additional upside for this ETF. The weekly chart still shows an oversold condition with the five-week modified moving average at $105.44 and the 200-week SMA at $107.77. The rebound has been just shy of my monthly pivot at $105.75. My semiannual value level lags at $92.32 with annual risky levels at $116.26 and $120.42.(GLD) ($131.75) is now above its 50-day simple moving average at $129.58 with the 200-day SMA at $143.28. The weekly chart shifts to positive with a close on Friday above the five-week MMA at $129.81 with the 200-week SMA at $143.38. My monthly value level is $118.35 with a weekly risky level is $135.75.
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