Opening Print and S&P Levels to Watch
Global stocks, shares, bonds and currencies all surged, with algorithm and program trading driving the orders after yesterday's surprise decision by the U.S. Federal Reserve not to curtail its asset-buying program. As the Federal Reserve headlines hit the tape the trading pits of the CME Group's financial room exploded, hitting out buy stops in both the index and interest rate futures and options.
Algorithmic and program trading takes up so much space in the futures markets that tools that used to work don't anymore. The program writers have figured out every tool we use, even the plus or minus 1000 -1300 ticks and the new indicators (if they work) don't last very long. If it's not tied to an algorithm you can forget it .That means that traders to constantly be looking for a new edge. Whether its learning "pivots and vol windows" or learning how to read the program levels in the S&P.
As for today we have eight economic numbers , some Fed speak and the last day of the September rollover. With all the talk of the Fed most people have not paid much attention to this Friday's September Quadruple Witching. While it is no way the event that it used to be it still needs to be on your radar.
Accordingly, the Ned Davis S&P cash study shows pre-expiration Thursday was up 16 and down 13 of the last 29 occasions; expiration Friday up 17 / down 12 of the last 29 occasion and next Monday (or the first trading day after the expiration ) up 9 / down 20 of the last 29.
The S&P futures have rallied to 1725, a full 100 handles from their 1625 taper low. Additionally, the S&P futures have closed higher eight out of the last nine session, or up four in a row. Provided the economic reports don't surprise and knowing the S&P is the global leader it may be rest time for the ESZ. As firm as the S&P acts the futures have gone 85 handles in the last 11 days. After a big day up like yesterday and knowing the news is out we lean to a side ways to lower S&P today. Not saying the S&P can't or won't rally, but we think it will sell off a bit today.
As always, use stops and keep an eye on the 10-handle rule. Don't forget to catch MrTopStep on The Closing Print video. We report directly from the SPX pits, wrapping up the day and positioning for trade tomorrow.
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