NEW YORK ( Fabian Capital Management) -- The looming Federal Reserve meeting on Wednesday has many market watchers on the edge of their seats, waiting to see what happens with the outcome of the taper debate.
Some are calling for a big reduction in the asset purchase programs, while others are forecasting a more modest slowdown. The final decision will ultimately play a huge catalyst in the future price trend of stocks, bonds and commodities. But one asset class that will certainly see some additional volatility in the weeks ahead is gold.
We saw the SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD) fall out of favor in the beginning of the year and decline precipitously until it bottomed in July. Since that time, a snapback rally alleviated some of the downside pressure but this fledgling uptrend may be facing its most critical test in the near future.
Courtesy of StockCharts.com In my opinion, GLD needs to hold the $125 level in order to retain its technical strength and continue to gain additional steam. If it can form a higher low and blast off above its August high, then we may see a run for the 200-day moving average (red line) which would bring additional asset flows back into this sector.