BOSTON ( TheStreet) -- Last January, I invited my Twitter followers to make their own biotech stock predictions for 2013. Let's check in to see whose crystal ball was in fine working order.
AMRN - still independent, launch sales - they will spend much more on mkting, admin, sales than actual gains from product sales. No NCE/— Sport234a2b (@Sport234a) January 1, 2013
Amarin (AMRN) has been a big loser, which makes @Sport234a2b a big winner!
Nope, but Targacept (TRGT) is up almost 30% this year despite, basically, doing nothing. TRGT data by YCharts
@ adamfeuerstein my wildest prediction: $CYTK breaks thru $1. benefit in ALS+partner.meets 1ary endpnt in HF— Juan P. Serrate, DVM (@JPZaragoza1) January 1, 2013Cytokinetics (CYTK) closed Friday at $8.18, so you got that right, even after factoring in the 1-for-6 reverse stock split. No ALS data or partner yet and that heart-failure drug isn't looking so hot.
@ adamfeuerstein Amrn BO price $23 by April— mimosttr (@trstmomi) January 2, 2013Fail.
SRPT - expect FDAyes 4 a NDA filing based on current data, a very tough panel review potential late 13, very volatile stk in 13.— Sport234a2b (@Sport234a) January 1, 2013Sarepta Therapeutics (SRPT - Get Report) a volatile stock? You betcha. We're still waiting for the actual eteplrisen filing and expected FDA panel, which are now 2014 events.
@ adamfeuerstein $GSK will buy the rest of $FOLD 5-6 range. $INCY will be bid for by several BP's making it the star of the year.— JNV (@JNVcapital) January 1, 2013Amicus Therapeutics (FOLD) and Incyte (INCY) are still single.
@ adamfeuerstein $SGMO and other HIV-elimination (cure) technologies emerge as a threat to $GILD $JNJ $MRK $GSK and others— Martin Shkreli (@MartinShkreli) January 1, 2013Martin was kidding, I hope.
.@ adamfeuerstein Mdvn pre-chemo data trumps zytiga by 2 months. Combo trials gives PCA patients an extra 8 months (2014 data?). Dndn dies.— daviesbj (@daviesbj) January 1, 2013I hesitate to congratulate Ben for his prescient prediction because it will only swell his already-robust ego.
@ adamfeuerstein APPA is the best performer out of all of the he "A" stocks(AMRN, ARNA, ALXA have TERRIBLE launches and stock prices suffer)— Chet Stedman (@ChetStedman5) January 1, 2013A.P. Pharma (APPA) is not enjoying 2013: APPA data by YCharts
But yes, the "A" drug launches pretty much suck, so good on 'ya!
@ adamfeuerstein Mnkd will be the biotech of the year.— Al Marino (@optiontrader78) January 1, 2013MannKind (MNKD) the stock of the year? Not a chance, but shares are up 146% so you get half credit.
@ adamfeuerstein I predict the anti-PD1s will be big successes in multiple solid tumor types. Lung and melanoma in particular. $BMY and $MRK— Chris Ahlstrand (@ahlstrac) January 1, 2013Excellent. You were spot on.
@ adamfeuerstein I predict you are accused of being a hedge fund shill at least 500x in 2013— Stock Jock (@hedgeorbehedged) January 1, 2013Too easy.
@ adamfeuerstein Some speculative predictions: ACHN does a deal w/ABT or JNJ for 3102. 1625 remains unpartnered.— John Alan Tucker (@JohnTuckerPhD) January 1, 2013Nope. Very little hepatitis C deal-making this year, but Achillion Pharma's (ACHN) sovaprevir ('1625) remains unpartnered. Correct.
@ adamfeuerstein celgene? Most undervalued mega biotech on the market? I only play with options though— SAmitBhatt (@SamitBhatt) January 1, 2013Let's take a look at the year-to-date stock performance of the big-cap biotechs: CELG data by YCharts
Celgene (CELG - Get Report)... Booyah!
@ adamfeuerstein I share your healthy skepticism for Arena Pharmaceuticals but I predict their launch of Belviq will not be a disaster.— Matthew C. MacIsaac (@macissm) January 1, 2013Arena Pharma's (ARNA - Get Report) Belviq launch has been a near disaster. Half credit.
@ adamfeuerstein $AMRN no b/o but partnership deal. $VICL primary endpoint misses but overall survival data +. $SRPT accelerated approval.— Bobby Shea (@robertcshea) January 1, 2013O-fer. Better luck next year.
@ adamfeuerstein big year for $OPK diagnostics platforms— Raymond Gachette (@raygachette) January 1, 2013I don't know what Opko Health (OPK) actually did this year to validate its diagnostics business, but the stock worked. OPK data by YCharts
@ adamfeuerstein prediction both ARNA and vvus fail miserably and their stocks trade for the cash on b.s. by yr end— Rafa (@coffee_junkies) January 1, 2013Congrats. Well done.
@ adamfeuerstein Envouraged by the positive performance of new IPOs, biotechs start reconsidering going public as a viable exit— Vikram Khanna (@VikramKhanna_) January 1, 2013Vikram wins best prediction of 2013.
@ adamfeuerstein General: 2013 could be record year for sector M,P(partnerships)&A.— Mike Huckman (@MikeHuckman) January 1, 2013It has been a good year for deal making, maybe not as much as M&A as you predicted however.
@ adamfeuerstein $SGMO hits one target after another,becoming the gene therapy platform of choice: lot of headache for many pharma firms— Ralph (@StuckInStock) January 1, 2013The chart says: "Incorrect!" SGMO data by YCharts
@ adamfeuerstein based on upcoming catalysts, I think it's possible, with multiple + data scenarios, $ANAC sees new highs in 2013— TheEscapeGroup (@TheEscapeGroup) January 1, 2013Nice call on Anacor Pharma (ANAC), but it does illustrate some of the absurd stock moves during this year's biotech bubble. ANAC data by YCharts
@ adamfeuerstein big year for srpt and Aegr. Srpt gets accelerated approval. Aegr gets emea approval. FDA rejects Isis.— Joe Smith (@zwerp2000) January 1, 2013