If you don't believe me, check out the runs in Lumber Liquidators (LL), another richly-valued retailer that has been beating numbers handily and has ample runway to grow.
Candidly, I just don't like this kind of activity. I don't like it when stocks go up 18 points on some better-than-expected news. But we have been having exaggerated moves to the upside for days now.
Today, Safeway (SWY) has been roaring almost $2 because it was upgraded by Credit Suisse. Sure, it was a Sell-to-a-Buy recommendation, which hints that maybe something's going on that's bigger than a potential earnings surprise. But the real truth is that people are just incredibly enthusiastic about stocks, much more than I have seen in some time. We saw it yesterday, too, when Walgreen (WAG) made a gigantic move, one of the best in the entire S&P 500, when Goldman Sachs slapped a Conviction Buy on the name. That, too, is a little ridiculous.
Perhaps the whole coloration of the stock market has changed. Perhaps skepticism is being suspended, not unlike the way it was in the 1980s and the 1990s. But, to me, this is a little too much. Still, as I completed the discussion with Carl and David, it became clear to me that these same worries that I articulated today could have been made any time in the last few weeks. It left me boxed in. My discipline says you can't chase. But the market's mocking discipline now on a full-time basis.
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