This Day On The Street
Continue to site
This account is pending registration confirmation. Please click on the link within the confirmation email previously sent you to complete registration.
Need a new registration confirmation email? Click here

AER Scientists Uncover Link Between Declining Arctic Sea Ice And Colder Winters

Atmospheric and Environmental Research ( AER), a Verisk Analytics (Nasdaq:VRSK) company, reports some of the strongest evidence to date that Arctic sea ice loss, which contributes to an overall warmer Arctic, has links to colder winters and related extreme weather events across northern Eurasia and much of the U.S. and Canada.

In research published yesterday in Oceanography magazine, AER scientists investigate the cause for a recent string of cold winters. The findings present a previously missing piece in the quest to understand if declining sea ice is influencing more extreme weather, including colder, snowier winters. The research may also lead to more accurate forecasts of temperatures and storms that are used by the private and public sectors in preparation for the winter season.

The research shows that the “Warm Arctic/Cold Continents” temperature pattern follows autumns with less Arctic sea ice and increased Siberian snowfall. The pattern is also associated with the negative phase of the Arctic Oscillation, which is the dominant atmospheric pattern observed during severe winters and comprises a weakened jet stream and more cold air intrusions southward from the Arctic into North America and Eurasia.

“This research shows for the first time how both sea ice melt and rapid snow advance are related to more severe winter weather,” Judah Cohen, Ph.D. principal scientist and director of seasonal forecasting at AER, who is lead author of the study. “The results suggest that record sea ice melt last autumn contributed to the individual extreme weather events of last winter. Using a statistical rather than dynamical model, we established the relationship between declining sea ice, more extensive snow cover in northern Eurasia, and a weakened polar vortex, which allows cold air normally confined to the northern latitudes to spread southward.”

“During this time of rapid change in the Arctic climate system and our understanding of it, the scientific community must look closely at the observational record, be open-minded in considering alternative hypotheses, and not be too quick in dismissing hypotheses that do not conform with the expectations of existing models,” said Charles H. Greene, associate editor of Oceanography and director of the Ocean Resources and Ecosystems Program at Cornell University. “This paper takes that perspective, and that is why it’s valuable and timely. The AER scientists took a different approach to reframe the question and, as a result, they demonstrate that snow cover in Asia and Arctic sea ice are related and key to understanding our recent streak of colder winters.”

“We applied the same analytical tools to sea ice that were used to demonstrate the link between Siberian snow cover, the Arctic Oscillation, and mid-latitude weather,” said Jason C. Furtado, Ph.D., staff scientist at AER and co-author of the paper. “These preliminary findings provide an additional framework to understand the important connection between the Arctic and the mid-latitudes, which subsequently can be used for predictions of the fall and winter months.”

1 of 3

Check Out Our Best Services for Investors

Action Alerts PLUS

Portfolio Manager Jim Cramer and Director of Research Jack Mohr reveal their investment tactics while giving advanced notice before every trade.

Product Features:
  • $2.5+ million portfolio
  • Large-cap and dividend focus
  • Intraday trade alerts from Cramer
Quant Ratings

Access the tool that DOMINATES the Russell 2000 and the S&P 500.

Product Features:
  • Buy, hold, or sell recommendations for over 4,300 stocks
  • Unlimited research reports on your favorite stocks
  • A custom stock screener
Stocks Under $10

David Peltier uncovers low dollar stocks with serious upside potential that are flying under Wall Street's radar.

Product Features:
  • Model portfolio
  • Stocks trading below $10
  • Intraday trade alerts
14-Days Free
Only $9.95
14-Days Free
Dividend Stock Advisor

David Peltier identifies the best of breed dividend stocks that will pay a reliable AND significant income stream.

Product Features:
  • Diversified model portfolio of dividend stocks
  • Updates with exact steps to take - BUY, HOLD, SELL
Trifecta Stocks

Every recommendation goes through 3 layers of intense scrutiny—quantitative, fundamental and technical analysis—to maximize profit potential and minimize risk.

Product Features:
  • Model Portfolio
  • Intra Day Trade alerts
  • Access to Quant Ratings
Real Money

More than 30 investing pros with skin in the game give you actionable insight and investment ideas.

Product Features:
  • Access to Jim Cramer's daily blog
  • Intraday commentary and news
  • Real-time trading forums
Only $49.95
14-Days Free
14-Days Free
AAPL $95.03 -2.90%
FB $116.73 7.20%
GOOG $691.02 -2.10%
TSLA $247.54 -1.60%
YHOO $36.59 -0.97%


Chart of I:DJI
DOW 17,830.76 -210.79 -1.17%
S&P 500 2,075.81 -19.34 -0.92%
NASDAQ 4,805.2910 -57.85 -1.19%

Free Reports

Top Rated Stocks Top Rated Funds Top Rated ETFs