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Trade-Ideas: Panera Bread Company (PNRA) Is Today's "Barbarian At The Gate" Stock

Editor's Note: Any reference to TheStreet Ratings and its underlying recommendation does not reflect the opinion of TheStreet, Inc. or any of its contributors including Jim Cramer or Stephanie Link.

Trade-Ideas LLC identified Panera Bread Company (PNRA) as a "barbarian at the gate" (strong stocks crossing above resistance with today's range greater than 200%) candidate. In addition to specific proprietary factors, Trade-Ideas identified Panera Bread Company as such a stock due to the following factors:

  • PNRA has an average dollar-volume (as measured by average daily share volume multiplied by share price) of $67.8 million.
  • PNRA has traded 387,899 shares today.
  • PNRA traded in a range 233.9% of the normal price range with a price range of $6.54.
  • PNRA traded above its daily resistance level (quality: 15 days, meaning that the stock is crossing a resistance level set by the last 15 calendar days. The resistance price is defined by the Price - $0.01 at the time of the signal).

Stocks matching the 'Barbarian at the Gate' criteria are worthwhile stocks to watch for a variety of factors including historical back testing and volatility. Trade-Ideas targets these opportunities because the stock is exhibiting an unusual behavior while displaying positive price action. In this case, the stock crossed an important inflection point; namely, 'resistance' while at the same time the range of the stock s movement in price is more than twice its normal size. This large range foreshadows a possible continuation as the stock moves higher.

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More details on PNRA:

Panera Bread Company, together with its subsidiaries, owns, operates, and franchises retail bakery-cafes in the United States and Canada. The company operates three business segments: Bakery-Cafe Operations, Franchise Operations, and Fresh Dough and Other Product Operations. PNRA has a PE ratio of 26.3. Currently there are 11 analysts that rate Panera Bread Company a buy, 2 analysts rate it a sell, and 9 rate it a hold.

The average volume for Panera Bread Company has been 520,500 shares per day over the past 30 days. Panera Bread has a market cap of $4.7 billion and is part of the services sector and leisure industry. The stock has a beta of 1.07 and a short float of 5.6% with 3.88 days to cover. Shares are up 5.4% year to date as of the close of trading on Tuesday.

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TheStreetRatings.com Analysis:

TheStreet Quant Ratings rates Panera Bread Company as a buy. The company's strengths can be seen in multiple areas, such as its revenue growth, impressive record of earnings per share growth, compelling growth in net income, reasonable valuation levels and notable return on equity. We feel these strengths outweigh the fact that the company shows low profit margins.

Highlights from the ratings report include:

  • PNRA's revenue growth has slightly outpaced the industry average of 3.4%. Since the same quarter one year prior, revenues rose by 11.0%. Growth in the company's revenue appears to have helped boost the earnings per share.
  • PANERA BREAD CO has improved earnings per share by 16.0% in the most recent quarter compared to the same quarter a year ago. The company has demonstrated a pattern of positive earnings per share growth over the past two years. We feel that this trend should continue. During the past fiscal year, PANERA BREAD CO increased its bottom line by earning $5.89 versus $4.55 in the prior year. This year, the market expects an improvement in earnings ($6.81 versus $5.89).
  • The net income growth from the same quarter one year ago has exceeded that of the S&P 500 and the Hotels, Restaurants & Leisure industry average. The net income increased by 15.6% when compared to the same quarter one year prior, going from $44.14 million to $51.04 million.
  • The return on equity has improved slightly when compared to the same quarter one year prior. This can be construed as a modest strength in the organization. Compared to other companies in the Hotels, Restaurants & Leisure industry and the overall market on the basis of return on equity, PANERA BREAD CO has underperformed in comparison with the industry average, but has exceeded that of the S&P 500.

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