CFO Marianne Lake on Monday said during an investor presentation that the bank's legal expenses in the third quarter could top $1.5 billion following a "crescendo of activity" in the past few weeks, erasing the benefit from loan loss reserves.
The bank's mortgage origination business could see a loss in the third and fourth quarter. And markets revenue in the third quarter could be flat to down 5% from a strong third quarter of 2012.
Analysts on Tuesday took down their earnings estimates for the bank following the fresh guidance, but many reiterated their "buy" ratings citing attractive valuations.KBW analyst Chris Mutascio lowered his third quarter earnings estimate to $1.12 a share from $1.45, to factor in the higher legal expenses of $1.67 billion. KBW's full year 2013 estimate was lowered to $5.70 from $6.11. "We think it is prudent to carry forward some legal reserve builds despite the projected sizable build up we expect in 3Q13. Until the recent litigation actions are settled or we get more information from management, we think it is prudent to increase litigation costs over the next several quarters," Mutascio wrote in a report. Still, he maintains an "outperform" rating on the stock. "In an environment where investors are willing to potentially wait years for short-term interest rates to rise and net interest margin to expand while bidding up 'asset-sensitive' bank stocks in anticipation, we are willing to buy the shares of JPM at a significantly discounted valuation knowing legal costs will eventually fall. Despite our earnings revisions, JPM shares still trade at just 8.9x our 2014 EPS estimate of $5.95. Our $63 target price represents just 10.6x our 2014 EPS estimate (we have yet to publish 2015 EPS estimates) and 19% potential upside potential -- not including a dividend yield of nearly 3.0%," he wrote. Atlantic Equities analyst Richard Staite also lowered estimates on a "noisy" quarter but retained his positive outlook. "We think the shares are attractively valued on a 2014 PE of 8.6x with the main catalyst to a re-rating being a reduction in the litigation overhang," he wrote in a note to clients.
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