This article originally appeared Sept. 3, 2013, on Real Money. To read more content like this, + see inside Jim Cramer's multi-million dollar portfolio for FREE Click Here NOW.
It's easy to suspend belief. Last week was one of those world-coming-to-an-end weeks that we get about five or six times out of 52. The last few earnings reports were not so hot. The charts showed wreckage abounding. President Obama was hell-bent to start a war with Syria, and the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond threatened to hit 3% once again. (Wouldn't it be great if it just got there already?) The banks were rivaling the techs for ugliness, and the only upside was a vicious short squeeze in Saleforce.com (CRM) as the bears were ousted at last.
Now, with Syria sidelined for the moment and with China dishing out some good news signaling the end of something or other, we've gotten a reprieve. Plus, we just got a Verizon (VZ) deal that's so huge, so immense, it's like a government-injected works program. Meanwhile, Microsoft (MSFT) has caused Nokia (NOK) -- one of my favorite speculative plays -- to go up huge while doing no favors for itself! How can you not like what that does to the spec juices?
Still, it's easy to see why no one is buying this. If I were coming in short today, I would say the following:1. China is all phony, and we know that's because things are terrible there, and one number doesn't change things. (That's now an evergreen answer.) 2. Japan is in the grips of a new wave of taxes. 3. India is horrendous. 4. Employment numbers are due out Friday, and those numbers will send the 10-year to 3%, which will lead to a stock-market drop of enormous proportions. 5. It's the Jewish New Year, and don't always stocks go down then? Of course, if you are short you must, must, must proclaim the phoniness of it all. At moments like this, though, I always default to Karen Cramer reasoning. One: it's better to be lucky than good. Two: you should have been long, moron. At the time of publication, Action Alerts PLUS, which Cramer co-manages as a charitable trust, had no positions in the securities mentioned.
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