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After Today's Deals, the Math Is Simple

This article originally appeared on Sept. 3, 2013 on RealMoney. To read more content like this + see inside Jim Cramer's multi-million dollar portfolio for FREE Click Here NOW.

Verizon's (VZ - Get Report) making the right move. Microsoft's (MSFT - Get Report) making the wrong one.

Sure, maybe I will regret those words when Microsoft-Nokia (NOK - Get Report) deal turns into a powerhouse that crushes Samsung and Apple (AAPL - Get Report). Verizon may well flounder and cut its dividend because it paid too much when it shelled out $130 billion to pay Vodafone (VOD) for the 49% of Verizon Wireless it hadn't already owned. Maybe Microsoft got a bargain with that handset business, as well as a potential new CEO in Steven Elop, currently the chief executive of Nokia. Maybe this is really Microsoft's chance to get big into mobile, and you have to respect that it's better late than never.

My problem, though, is that one company is throwing good money after a winner, Verizon Wireless -- and the other is going after a loser in Nokia.

Verizon Wireless is the 100-million-subscriber gorilla. I know there's renewed competition now: Sprint (S) is armed with Softbank money, T-Mobile (TMUS) has a rejuvenated CEO, and Deutsche Telephone is ready to pony up what's necessary in order to be competitive. I sure don't like Verizon Wireless as much as I did before Softbank and Deutsche Tel decided the U.S. was too precious to waste.

Plus, I wish Verizon had stuck by its earlier guns and paid $100 billion, not $130 billion -- although $100 billion is totally monumental. I'm conservative about debt, but I guess the train is pulling out of the interest-rate station, so action had been required -- and Vodafone had been motivated now that the competition in the U.S. could cut down on profitability here.

But the math is simple: Verizon's numbers are going higher when the deal is done, and that means its stock will be a buy when the smoke clears and the shares settle down. Maybe you should even buy some at current levels.

Microsoft? I don't know why I would want to buy it unless the company is going to split up, and we have no idea if that will happen. That said, the idea of a Windows-based utility, an entertainment company and a mobile company with Skype built in is pretty darned attractive. If the stock gets back to $28, where it was two quarters ago, then I think it might be worth a look. But that's a 10% fall from the current price, and I wouldn't own it through that kind of decline.

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