Here are some good reasons things don't work out for the bears all that often.
1. There's a lot of spare money around. Look at the money just generated today with this Verizon deal. Verizon is playing the role of Congress and the Federal Reserve with its printing press.
2. There is such a thing as progress. People continue to underrate progress as a factor in their thinking because it is not so day-to-day. It can't hit the radar screen because it is a stealth input.
3. The longer the 10-year bond hangs at the 2.75%-to-2.95% area, the less impact it will have on stocks. It was the velocity of the move here, not the actual move, that threw people off. It disrupted a huge number of real estate deals, compounded by the fact that the people who build houses have simply refused to acknowledge that the higher rates matter. But if rates go up gradually from the 3% level. where it is obvious they are heading, I think that will be fine -- although even I am concerned about 3.25%.
4. The Fed-tapering matter is one of those issues that's quite central to the bears' arguments, and it can impact all of the hot money that's currently in emerging markets. The bears will say that the emerging markets can cause a huge selloff, as they did in 1995, 1996 and 1997. That's all true. But think about this: Those were all great opportunities to buy, so if we get that selloff, the bears should change direction. But they can't, because the event itself would be so negative for them that it would be just another reason not to switch direction.
5. We need China back on line, but the bears have decided that all numbers out of China are phony. But what happens if they aren't? They leave no room to believe, and it's really important for them to discredit China, because it's one of the biggest props. Until China's gross domestic product is growing at 6%, they'll have nothing to say.
I can go on and on, but you have to realize that nothing can truly turn the minds of the full-time bears to bullishness -- because, in the end, the bears can never give the market the benefit of the doubt. They believe skepticism means never having to say you are long.
So they fight it with everything they have.