NEW YORK ( TheStreet) -- I was talking with Stephanie Link, the co-portfolio manager for Action Alerts PLUS, about the copper trade and a few of the stocks that have been benefiting from a strong rally in prices since the beginning of August.
Stephanie has been a big advocate over the last month for Vale (VALE - Get Report), the Brazilian copper miner that has rallied from near $12 a share to sit today nearer to $15, a 25% gain that's impossible to argue with.
But every production report I read tells me the same story: The supply coming online continues to outstrip the potential demand, even with a recovering economy in the U.S. and Europe. Almost six of every 10 tons of copper are dependent upon China and its numbers on growth that, even with a manufacturing expansion in August, continue to be revised downwards.
I'd love to recommend copper because it has endlessly lagged the rest of the commodity recovery since 2009, but I just can't do it. One of the points that Stephanie and I agreed upon was the long-term nature of the copper trade. If you are buying VALE or my own favorite Freeport-McMoRan (FCX - Get Report), you must do it with a very long horizon view in mind. With dividends over 5% for VALE and 4% for FCX being safely delivered, it's a legitimate "pay to wait" idea.I talk more about copper with Stephanie in the video above. Action Alerts PLUS has a position in VALE. At the time of publication the author had no position in any of the stocks mentioned. Follow @dan_dicker This article was written by an independent contributor, separate from TheStreet's regular news coverage.