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Higher Yields on Bonds, Gold and Crude Oil

At www.ValuEngine.com we do not show a single buy-rated gold stock. On Aug. 8 I suggested that if you want to buy a gold mining stock to choose Newmont Mining (NEM) ($31.47 vs. $26.48 on Aug. 7). This hold-rated stock traded to a multi-year low at $26.43 on Aug. 7 and traded as high as $34.27 into Aug. 27 for a low to high gain of 29.6%. Buy-and-trade investors could have captured a portion of this upside. The gold miner still has a hold rating and is 20.4% undervalued. My monthly value level is $23.63 with a weekly pivot at $33.05 and quarterly risky level at $40.92.

Crude oil ($107.89) traded as high as $112.34 into Aug. 28 but all closes since then have been below my semiannual pivot at $109.84. The daily chart is neutral with oil above its 50-day SMA at $104.96, but with a negative divergence in momentum. The weekly chart profile is positive but overbought with the five-week modified moving average at $105.66 and the 200-week SMA at $90.47. My quarterly value level is $91.75 with a monthly pivot at $105.67, the semiannual pivot at $109.84 and weekly and annual risky levels at $110.32 and $115.23.

You can trade crude oil using the Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLE) ($82.17) which has been trading sideways since testing $83.95 back on May 22. The June 24 low was $76.02, just above its 200-day SMA, then at $75.85 on a positive daily chart. The weekly chart shifts to negative given a close this week below the five-week MMA at $81.78. My quarter value level lags at $68.32 with weekly, monthly and semiannual risky levels at $84.65, $87.91 and $88.35.

On September 3 I wrote, Cisco Joins List of 11 Buy-Rated Dow Stocks as Fundamentals Deteriorate. In this post I showed that the oils-energy sector has an underweight rating with 31.1% of the 569 stocks in this sector rated sell, and that five stocks had buy ratings.

At the time of publication the author held no positions in any of the stocks mentioned.

This article is commentary by an independent contributor, separate from TheStreet's regular news coverage.

Stock quotes in this article: TLT, GLD, NEM, XLE 
Richard Suttmeier has an engineering degree from Georgia Tech and a master of science from Brooklyn Poly. He began his career in the financial services industry in 1972 trading U.S. Treasury securities in the primary dealer community. In 1981 he formed the Government Bond Department at LF Rothschild and helped establish that firm as a primary dealer in 1986. Richard began writing market research in 1984 and held positions as market strategist at firms such as Smith Barney, William R Hough, Joseph Stevens, and Rightside Advisors. He joined www.ValuEngine.com in 2008 producing newsletters covering the U.S. capital markets, and a universe of more than 7,000 stocks. Richard employs a "buy and trade" investment strategy and can be reached at RSuttmeier@Gmail.com.

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