Kass: Short-Term Market Outlook Improves
Factors favoring a short-term advance into a month that has historically been a weak period (September (according to BTIG's Dan Greenhaus "is the only month of the year which does not produce positive returns more than 50% of the time although recent Septembers have generally been positive)" include moderate improvement in manufacturing activity, which turns the headwinds of Europe and China into modest tailwinds. As well, sentiment had deteriorated as technical damage has been magnified in the face of lower stock prices (both in the emerging and developed worlds). Finally, the administration's actions towards debate with the House and Senate is also a modest positive.
At the very least, the factors mentioned in today's opening missive will contain the market's downside. At best, September-October could be surprisingly good months for the equity markets.
Color me slightly more upbeat and willing to trade from the long side as well as the short side now, in more of a two-way market setting.
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