NEW YORK (TheStreet) -- Talks between Vodafone Group (VOD) and Verizon Communications (VZ) over their U.S. wireless joint venture are practically a semi-annual event. Vodafone has been a willing seller of its minority stake in Verizon Wireless, and its New York partner a willing buyer, for a decade or so.
The potential for rising interest rates may increase the urgency for Verizon to get a deal done. While rates are still historically low, a purchase of Vodafone's 45% could still be accretive at a price of $130 billion. Changes in Vodafone's perspective may also make a deal more likely this time around.
"Vodafone needs money," if the U.K. wireless carrier wants to continue its strategy of combining wireline and wireless networks in Europe, said Roger Entner of Dedham, Mass., consultancy Recon Analytics.
Vodafone in June agreed to buy Kabel Deutschland Holding for ¿ 7.7 billion ($10.1 billion). A mega-payout from Verizon would give the London telecom an unrivaled war chest to consolidate other markets."They would have deeper pockets than everyone in Europe, than anyone in the world," Entner said, "and all they do is get rid of a noncore market." While it would be a regulatory impossibility, Entnet noted, in most European countries Vodafone could buy every single wireless carrier if the regulators would allow them. Craig Moffett of Moffett Research suggested in a Thursday note that a diminished view of the U.S. wireless market could motivate Vodafone to exit the profitable JV. The U.S. market's revenue growth and margins may be the most attractive among developed countries, he noted, even with four national carriers. "There is little prospect for things getting materially better for Verizon Wireless," he wrote, "and a meaningful chance that things get worse." Vodafone's experience in Japan could inform its view of the U.S. In 2006, the company sold its Japanese carrier to SoftBank, whose chairman and CEO Masayoshi Son has ignited competition and lowered prices. Softbank has, of course, just taken a controlling stake in Sprint (S) and rolled up the carrier's control of Clearwire. "Vodafone's management may be looking at the U.S. and saying to itself, 'We've seen this movie before,'" he wrote.
Select the service that is right for you!COMPARE ALL SERVICES
- $2.5+ million portfolio
- Large-cap and dividend focus
- Intraday trade alerts from Cramer
- Weekly roundups
Access the tool that DOMINATES the Russell 2000 and the S&P 500.
- Buy, hold, or sell recommendations for over 4,300 stocks
- Unlimited research reports on your favorite stocks
- A custom stock screener
- Upgrade/downgrade alerts
- Diversified model portfolio of dividend stocks
- Alerts when market news affect the portfolio
- Bi-weekly updates with exact steps to take - BUY, HOLD, SELL
- Real Money + Doug Kass Plus 15 more Wall Street Pros
- Intraday commentary & news
- Ultra-actionable trading ideas
- 100+ monthly options trading ideas
- Actionable options commentary & news
- Real-time trading community
- Options TV