NEW YORK (
) -- Talks between
(VZ - Get Report)
over their U.S. wireless joint venture are practically a semi-annual event. Vodafone has been a willing seller of its minority stake in Verizon Wireless, and its New York partner a willing buyer, for a decade or so.
The potential for rising interest rates may increase the urgency for Verizon to get a deal done. While rates are still historically low, a purchase of Vodafone's 45% could still be accretive at a price of $130 billion. Changes in Vodafone's perspective may also make a deal more likely this time around.
"Vodafone needs money," if the U.K. wireless carrier wants to continue its strategy of combining wireline and wireless networks in Europe, said Roger Entner of Dedham, Mass., consultancy
Vodafone in June agreed to buy
Kabel Deutschland Holding
for ¿ 7.7 billion ($10.1 billion). A mega-payout from Verizon would give the London telecom an unrivaled war chest to consolidate other markets.
"They would have deeper pockets than everyone in Europe, than anyone in the world," Entner said, "and all they do is get rid of a noncore market." While it would be a regulatory impossibility, Entnet noted, in most European countries Vodafone could buy every single wireless carrier if the regulators would allow them.
Craig Moffett of
suggested in a Thursday note that a diminished view of the U.S. wireless market could motivate Vodafone to exit the profitable JV. The U.S. market's revenue growth and margins may be the most attractive among developed countries, he noted, even with four national carriers.
"There is little prospect for things getting materially better for Verizon Wireless," he wrote, "and a meaningful chance that things get worse."
Vodafone's experience in Japan could inform its view of the U.S. In 2006, the company sold its Japanese carrier to
, whose chairman and CEO Masayoshi Son has ignited competition and lowered prices. Softbank has, of course, just taken a controlling stake in
and rolled up the carrier's control of
"Vodafone's management may be looking at the U.S. and saying to itself, 'We've seen this movie before,'" he wrote.