Elowitz makes an illogical leap from something NFLX bulls choose to ignore -- the company might not survive(!) -- to broadcasting the freaking Olympics. Earlier in his article, he leaps, but falls between buildings again. I agree with Elowitz when he says ...
Netflix won't need to spend a billion dollars on NFL rights ... Instead, it could start organically, with a live stream of the White House Correspondents' Dinner roast served up to its political documentary fans and comedy buffs.
Perfectly sensible. I think it's a good strategy. Might even happen. However, to argue that
(TWX - Get Report)
started out with hockey so Netflix can whimsically undergo the same metamorphosis ignores the present state of Netflix's business. Things like its cash flow statement and off-balance sheet obligations (over $5.5 billion as of the most recent quarter). But, Elowitz lives in the land of startups where money flows for great, even if wholly unrealistic ideas, not necessarily viable business models.
Here's something more realistic that Elowitz -- and Netflix -- should consider today.
Netflix does not operate from a position of strength. Publicly, it talks about being the next
; privately, it would kill for the content
refuses to sell it. Reed Hastings and Ted Sarandos should put together the best "beg" (I stole that from
) they can muster and try to weasel in on an existing deal.
An event such as the Olympics throws more at NBC than it can handle. It has to farm programming out to
thus preempting shows such as Jim Cramer's "Mad Money." In this case, a Netflix partnership for the overflow could make sense.
However, let me call myself out -- my argument sucks badly as well.
Elowitz and the rest of the world that spews unconditional love Netflix's way miss one very important point. As mentioned, Apple and Google have more money -- and always will -- so they're the more logical partners, especially as they establish and eventually surpass Netflix's living room presence. And, more importantly, the old guard media knows how to stream
It doesn't need Netflix; in fact, it merely permits Netflix's existence. It can pull that permit on a dime.
Traditional televisions streams via apps such as
. And, as I have argued a million times, they control the pace at which these initiatives evolve. Netflix doesn't.
Netflix absolutely can be a player, however, don't let guys like Elowitz misinform you. They will not do it as some powerful leader of a space. They will need to find a way to hitch a ride with somebody else if they ever want access to the most prime appointment viewing that exists today and isn't going anywhere tomorrow. And if they hitch a ride they will do it on terms that favor the content owners, not Netflix.
Written by Rocco Pendola in Santa Monica, Calif.