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TheStreet Open House

MannKind: Great Trade; Good Investment?

5. MNKD can't market Afrezza without a well-established, deep-pocketed partner such as Pfizer, Eli Lilly ( LLY) or Sanofi ( SNY).

6. MannKind earns no money and is fairly deep in debt. Without FDA approval of Afrezza, or without a marketing partner to market Afrezza after approval, MNKD is worth pretty close to $0.


1. Even though all indications now point to an FDA approval of Afrezza in early 2014, nobody can be absolutely certain of it until it actually happens.

2. In light of the negative medical points mentioned to the left, Afrezza's increased ease and convenience alone may not be sufficient to motivate doctors to switch away from prescribing injected insulin to their diabetic patients.

>>5 Rocket Stocks to Buy Now

3. Though almost everyone considers Afrezza to be quite superior to Exubera, nobody is certain that diabetic patients will accept or demand Afrezza in much greater numbers than exhibited with Exubera in 2007.

4. Pfizer and Lilly have previously given up on the market for inhaled insulin; nobody is publicly expressing confidence that either company will partner with MannKind to market Afrezza.

5. Sanofi already has a successful insulin program. While there is speculation that Sanofi could partner with MannKind or acquire MannKind in order to add Afrezza to its own product lineup, no-one has expressed confidence that it will do so.


With regards to trading MNKD, you can see by the chart that the stock has already provided the big-volume fast moves, both up and down, that traders love to play. And the huge divergences in the Bollinger Bands and the moving average line in the chart indicate that these heavy-volume swings will continue, going forward.

Plus, the longs and shorts, armed respectively with the positives and negatives listed above, will continue battling back-and-forth, and the above-listed uncertainties will continue to add to the chaos, until all is settled next year. So MNKD should remain a great stock to profitably trade, multiple times, for months to come.

What about MNKD as a good investment?

>>5 Stocks Under $10 Set to Soar

Well, the stocks of big successful biotech companies are currently trading at an average price-to-sales ratio of about 3. If all goes perfectly for MNKD, and AFREZZA is approved and successfully marketed and turns in annual sales of $3 billion, MNKD might then be reasonably expected to sport a market cap of $9 billion. In that best-case scenario, with 284 million shares outstanding, MNKD would trade at nearly $32/share -- that's more than a 450% increase from Friday's close at $5.77.

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