NEW YORK (
) -- Congress appears ready to start talking seriously about overhauling the mortgage finance system.
Over the past few months, the conversation on ending government-sponsored mortgage giants
has heated up, with the introduction of the Corker-Warner bill in the Senate and the passing of the "PATH" Act in the House.
President Obama also waded into the debate recently, arguing for a new mortgage finance system that will have a greater role for private capital and a limited government guarantee that would preserve easy access to credit in an economic downturn.
Last week, Rep. Jeb Hensarling (R., Texas) -- chairman of the House Financial Services Committeee -- said he was hopeful the House would hold a vote to wind down the GSEs as early as this fall, followed hopefully by a conference with the Senate.
KBW political analyst Brian Gardner, who has been skeptical of any progress on GSE reform before 2015, now says the legislation might get done sooner than expected, but still not before 2014.
"Investors should expect to see a series of hearings in the fall on the topic of mortgage finance and we think it is possible that the [Senate Banking] committee tries to pass a GSE bill later in the fall," he wrote in a note Sunday.
The problem is we are still going to be hearing mostly "talk" rather than action.
Gardner believes getting the bill passed would be a tall order, as there is a long list of "must do" items in the fall calendar for the Senate, including weighing Federal Reserve nominations.
Moreover, "there is likely to be policy disagreements over how to wind down Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, how long the transition period to a new system should last, the extent of the government's role in a new system (i.e., government back-stop), how roles of new system and the Federal Housing Administration (FHA) should track each other, and affordable housing programs," he wrote. "Any optimism over completing the task of passing GSE legislation may be premature but we think chances of passing a bill before 2015 are about to get a new boost."
-- Written by Shanthi Bharatwaj New York.