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Central Bank Stance Suggests Continued Downside in Swiss Franc

But it is also clear that banks have moved toward higher risk profiles, based on the assumption that low interest rates will remain in place for the foreseeable future. With this in mind, traders can expect the EUR/CHF to hold above 1.20 for the foreseeable future, as the timelines presented by Danthine and others open the way for long term positions with excellent risk to reward prospects. Any dips in the EUR/CHF toward 1.20 should still be viewed as a strong buying opportunity, and these calls will likely remain in place at least until the end of next year.

FXF Chart Perspective

The fundamental picture supports the argument for additional downside, and there is agreement from chart perspectives as well. The steady series of lower highs since the end of 2011 is suggestive of a consistent bear trend, and the downward resistance line created during that period coincides with the 100-week moving average, acting a strong level of resistance. Look to sell FXF on an approach to 106.40.

At the time of publication the author held no positions in any of the stocks mentioned.

This article is commentary by an independent contributor, separate from TheStreet's regular news coverage.

Richard Cox is based in China, and has lectured at several universities there on international trade and finance, focusing primarily on macroeconomics and price behavior in equity markets. His articles appear on a variety of Web sites, including MarketBulls.net, Seeking Alpha, FX Street and others. Investing strategies are based on technical and fundamental analysis of all the major asset classes (stock indices, currencies, and commodities). Trade ideas are generally based on time horizons of one to six months.
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