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A BlackBerry Buyout Could Be Worth $14 a Share, Maybe

NEW YORK ( TheStreet) -- A BlackBerry (BBRY - Get Report) buyout is probably a best-case scenario for shareholders and could happen with a price in excess of $14 a share.

When Thorsten Heins became CEO I assumed he would find a buyer and sell. In the face of Apple's (AAPL) and Google's (GOOG) market superiority and ongoing slugfest at full speed, the idea of BlackBerry gaining altitude was like expecting a jet to pull out of a stall without engines.

Even Microsoft (MSFT) through Nokia (NOK), two companies that were moved to irrelevance in comparison to Apple and Android, gives BlackBerry considerable competition.

The real surprise for me was BlackBerry didn't announce this soon after the BlackBerry 10 was released. I suppose the fear was an announcement could slow sales. As a consumer, if you're worried you may not receive new updates and apps, it's just as easy to pick from another of the 20 or more phones sitting on the shelf.

As an investor, I wouldn't try to get cute and hold out for everything you can. This is a buyer's market, and every participant knows it. A year ago, BlackBerry was still cash-flow positive and was months away from releasing BB10. That's a whole different landscape than BlackBerry currently finds itself navigating.

Also, about a year ago, the full value, or at least more value, of the intellectual property could be sold. In the last year, some key court cases have effectively lowered the value of IP -- not so much because of patent trolls, which many claim are a problem, but to prevent entire products from not reaching the market due to relatively small pieces of a product. An example is the dispute between Samsung and Apple.

It appeared Samsung might not be able to import the S3, but in the end it was allowed and Apple was awarded about $1 billion as the consolation prize. The award wasn't exactly a slap in the face, but nowhere near the $2.5 billion Apple wanted. More importantly, Apple's patents weren't enough to stop Samsung from selling the Galaxy S3.
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