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Netflix Still in Play After Big Gain

NEW YORK ( TheStreet) -- There is no doubt that Netflix (NFLX - Get Report) has been one of the best performers in the Nasdaq 100, with a weighted alpha of 145.28+. During the last 12 month, the stock is up more than 325% and still seems to keep going. We have all read about all the pricing mistakes it has made and the reversal of customer satisfaction, but is it real?

Compared to the market in the last six month, Netflix gained 44%, while the market, as measured by the Value Line Index, was up only 15% for the same period:

Courtesy of Barchart

Let's look at some of the numbers and comparisons:

Fundamental Factors

The stock is definitely a large cap, with a market capitalization of $14.37 billion, but it has a high price-to-earnings ratio of 236.23. Wall Street analysts predict the revenue will grow 20.10% this year and an additional 17.10% next year. They estimate earnings will increase 413.80% this year, another 121.50% next year and continue to increase by 22.50% annually for the next five years. The Financial Strength is B++, but TheStreet Ratings gives it only a C.

Technical indicators provided by Barchart: The stock has high 80% technical-buy signals coupled with a Trend Spotter buy signal. The stock is trading above its 20-, 50- and 100-day moving averages and had 10 new highs and was up 17.55% in the last quarter. The stock has a Relative Strength Index of 58.94% and a technical support level computed at 248.48. It recently traded at 255.85, with a 50-day moving average of 236.13.

Investor Interest

The stock has become popular with both individual and professional investors. 382 institutions own 87% of the shares outstanding. 35 analysts from 29 Wall Street firms issued 3 strong buys, 8 buys, 17 holds, 4 underperforms and 3 sell recommendations to their clients. I gauge individual investors' sentiment from the readers of Motley Fool and 9,781 readers vote 80% that the stock will beat the market. The more experienced All Stars gave a more confident vote of 93% for a beat. It should be noted that the short interest has dropped from almost 10 million shares back in January to around 4 million share recently.

Peer Comparisons

It's hard to find peer comparisons for Netflix, but let's look at a variety of companies that sell or provide video content to an Internet audience. In the past year, Netflix was up 327%, Amazon (AMZN - Get Report) 27%, Hastings Entertainment (HAST) 86% and Barnes & Noble (BKS - Get Report) 27%:
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AMZN $659.05 -1.80%
BKS $11.18 -2.40%
HAST $2.99 1.01%
NFLX $89.37 -1.60%
AAPL $93.21 -0.44%


Chart of I:DJI
DOW 17,660.71 +9.45 0.05%
S&P 500 2,050.63 -0.49 -0.02%
NASDAQ 4,717.0940 -8.5450 -0.18%

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