What happens to Sarepta's stock price if the drisapersen phase III study fails? It could surge higher on the view that the most viable DMD competitor is now derailed. Or, Sarepta shares could fall on the view that all exon-skipping technology is now under question.
Lots of optionality to think about as we get closer to the drisapersen data announcement. This is a big deal for Glaxo, Prosensa and Sarepta. The uncertainty helps explain, partially, the significant drop in Sarepta's value following the July 24 announcement.
I should also note that Sarepta will be presenting 96-week data from its eteplirsen study on October at the World Muscle Society meeting. The 48-week data from the same study were just published in the Annals of Neurology.
We're into the segment of the current biotech bubble where old and failed stock-promotion stories get recycled. Galena Biopharma (GALE) is one of these tired stories getting new life. In the past week, three Seeking Alpha contributors have published cringe-worthy ecomiums to Galena and its experimental breast cancer vaccine. The timing is not coincidental. With $27 million in cash and securities on hand at the end of the first quarter, Galena needs more money. The company last sold stock in December 2012, but needs to beef up the bank account to continue funding the NeuVax phase III study and hire a sales team to sell Abstral, its recently acquired cancer pain narcotic. Abstral will be a commercial flop, but Galena will waste a ton of money on it, nonetheless, because the company has nothing else to do. I've spent quite a bit of time in the past explaining why NeuVax will be a zero, too. Read the interview with Galena CEO Mark Ahn published by "Regarded Solutions" to get a taste of company-sponsored stock promotion in action. Excellent work, Claire Sojda! This chart says a lot: Galena totally left out of this summer's big move in the biotech sector: GALE data by YCharts
Speaking of stock promotion, Ken Luskin of Intrinsic Value Asset Management has been on a mission to convince every retail investor in the land to buy shares of Vical ahead of the announcement of results from a phase III study of allovectin-7, the company's skin cancer immunotherapy.
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