Buy Bonds, Trade Gold and Sell Crude Oil
NEW YORK ( TheStreet) -- The backup in the yields for the Treasury 10-year note (2.602%) and the 30-Year Treasury bond (3.677%) appears to have stabilized around my monthly pivots at 2.601% and 3.702% respectively.
Given a rally in long-dated Treasuries the 10-year yield can decline to my annual pivots at 2.476% and 1.981%, with the 30-Year yield declining to my annual pivots at 3.014% and 2.882%.
You can trade the bond market just like a stock using iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond (TLT) ($106.80). My monthly value level at $105.89 held the low on August 1, which was $$105.00. The upside potential is to my annual pivots at $116.26 and $120.42.
Comex gold ($1288.9) appears to have set at tradable low around the June 28 low at $1,179.4 an ounce. This month's pivot is $1,229.7 should center a trading range with the upper end just below $1,350.0.You can trade the gold market just like a stock using SPDR Gold Trust (GLD) ($124.15). My monthly value level is $118.93 with the 50-day simple moving average at $127.28 and my annual pivot at $153.45. The problem with gold stocks is that none of the popular names have buy ratings according to www.ValuEngine.com. If you want to buy a gold miner I would choose Newmont Mining (NEM - Get Report) ($26.48), which traded to a multi-year low at $26.43 on Wednesday. The stock has a hold rating according to ValuEngine, but is 35.8% undervalued and is trading below book value. My monthly value level is $25.85 with a quarterly risky level at $40.92. The company reported earnings on July 25 with a miss of 51 cents resulting in a loss of 10 cents a share. Crude oil ($104.11) appears to have set a double-top at $109.32 on July 19 and $108.82 on Aug. 2, setting the high end of a trading range just below my semiannual risky level at $109.84. My quarterly value level is $91.75. (XLE) ($82.39). My quarter value level lags at $68.32 with monthly and semiannual risky levels at $86.20 and $88.35.
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