SEATTLE, Aug. 8, 2013 /PRNewswire/ -- More than 100 forecasters said they expect the Zillow® Home Value Index [i] to end 2013 up an average of 6.7 percent year-over-year, according to the latest Zillow Home Price Expectations Survey, a significant jump from the 5.4 percent annual increase predicted the last time the survey was conducted. Additionally, while relatively few respondents expressed concern about the impact of recent increases in mortgage rates, most believe that rates of 6 percent or higher would pose a significant threat to the housing recovery.
The survey of 106 economists, real estate experts and investment and market strategists was sponsored by leading real estate information marketplace Zillow, Inc. (NASDAQ: Z) and is conducted quarterly by Pulsenomics LLC. Panelists said they expected median U.S. home values to rise to $167,490 by the end of this year, up from $156,900 at the end of 2012 and $161,100 currently. Based on current expectations for home value appreciation over the next five years, the panelists on average predicted that U.S. home values could approach new record highs by the end of 2017, coming very close to the previous peak level of $194,600 set in May 2007.
Panelists expect annual home value appreciation rates this year to end on a strong note, before slowing considerably from 2014 through 2017. Panelists said they expected appreciation rates to slow to roughly 4.4 percent in 2014, on average, unchanged from the previous survey. This rate is expected to slow further to 3.6 percent, 3.5 percent and 3.4 percent in 2015, 2016 and 2017, respectively. Cumulatively, survey respondents predicted home values to rise 23.7 percent through 2017, on average, up from 22.3 percent in the last survey.