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MannKind, Vical, GTx: Investors Predict Pivotal Clinical Trial Results


A phase III study of Vical's melanoma immunotherapy allovectin-7 will have results ready in August, the company said recently.

The survey says: 34 percent of respondents are predicting a positive result from the allovectin-7 melanoma study. A plurality of respondents -- 45 percent -- call the study a failure; while 23 percent chose not to make a prediction. I'm also predicting failure for allovectin-7 and discussed my reasons to be bearish in a column published in May.

Here are the results in pie-chart form:

My panel of 12 professional healthcare investors is even more negative on Vical, with 11, or 93 percent, predicting the allovectin-7 study will fail. One investor chose not to make a prediction. None forecast positive results.

Until the past week or so, Vical has not acted like a stock with positive trial results looming. VICL Chart VICL data by YCharts

In the past two months, Vical's short interest has increased 32 percent and currently stands at 12.7 million shares.
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