This Day On The Street
Continue to site
This account is pending registration confirmation. Please click on the link within the confirmation email previously sent you to complete registration.
Need a new registration confirmation email? Click here

MannKind, Vical, GTx: Investors Predict Pivotal Clinical Trial Results

BOSTON ( TheStreet) -- Investor sentiment favors MannKind (MNKD) and runs against Vical (VICL - Get Report) and GTx (GTXI) as each company nears the reporting of results from soon-to-be-completed pivotal clinical trials.

On Friday, I conducted a survey -- promoted via Twitter -- asking investors to predict the outcomes of each company's phase III clinical trials. I wasn't looking for in-depth analysis, just a simple prediction: Would the trial results be positive or negative? A total of 348 people responded to the survey.

I also reached out separately to a dozen institutional healthcare investors, asking them the same question about the MannKind, Vical and GTx studies.


Two phase III studies -- one each in type 1 and type 2 diabetics -- of MannKind's rapid-acting, inhaled insulin Afrezza are underway. The company says results will be reported this month.

Just over 50 percent of the investors predict positive results from the Afrezza trials, according to my reader survey. Thirty-one percent of respondents say the Afrezza studies will fail, while 19 percent either didn't know enough about the trials or didn't care to make a prediction. I voted along with the majority, predicting positive results.

Here's how the survey results look in a pie chart:

Of the 12 professional healthcare investors polled separately 10, or 83 percent, predicted a positive outcome from the MannKind studies. The other two investors chose not to make a prediction. [None predicted failure.]

The bullish sentiment picked up my surveys makes sense when you consider MannKind's stock price has been a tear for the past six months. If this is a run-up into expected positive results, we could see profit taking or selling on the news once Afrezza results are announced. MNKD Chart MNKD data by YCharts

MannKind is also the seventh-most shorted stock in the bio-pharma sector, with just under 29 percent of shares sold short as a percentage of the float. The MannKind short thesis is less about the risk of failed clinical trials and more focused on significant doubts about the company's ability to 1) get Afrezza approved; 2) find a marketing partner; and 3) generate meaningful revenue.
1 of 3

Check Out Our Best Services for Investors

Action Alerts PLUS

Portfolio Manager Jim Cramer and Director of Research Jack Mohr reveal their investment tactics while giving advanced notice before every trade.

Product Features:
  • $2.5+ million portfolio
  • Large-cap and dividend focus
  • Intraday trade alerts from Cramer
Quant Ratings

Access the tool that DOMINATES the Russell 2000 and the S&P 500.

Product Features:
  • Buy, hold, or sell recommendations for over 4,300 stocks
  • Unlimited research reports on your favorite stocks
  • A custom stock screener
Stocks Under $10

David Peltier uncovers low dollar stocks with serious upside potential that are flying under Wall Street's radar.

Product Features:
  • Model portfolio
  • Stocks trading below $10
  • Intraday trade alerts
14-Days Free
Only $9.95
14-Days Free
Dividend Stock Advisor

David Peltier identifies the best of breed dividend stocks that will pay a reliable AND significant income stream.

Product Features:
  • Diversified model portfolio of dividend stocks
  • Updates with exact steps to take - BUY, HOLD, SELL
Trifecta Stocks

Every recommendation goes through 3 layers of intense scrutiny—quantitative, fundamental and technical analysis—to maximize profit potential and minimize risk.

Product Features:
  • Model Portfolio
  • Intra Day Trade alerts
  • Access to Quant Ratings
Real Money

More than 30 investing pros with skin in the game give you actionable insight and investment ideas.

Product Features:
  • Access to Jim Cramer's daily blog
  • Intraday commentary and news
  • Real-time trading forums
Only $49.95
14-Days Free
14-Days Free
GTXI $0.70 0.00%
MNKD $1.35 0.00%
VICL $0.40 0.00%
AAPL $93.74 0.00%
FB $117.58 0.00%


Chart of I:DJI
DOW 17,773.64 -57.12 -0.32%
S&P 500 2,065.30 -10.51 -0.51%
NASDAQ 4,775.3580 -29.9330 -0.62%

Free Reports

Top Rated Stocks Top Rated Funds Top Rated ETFs