For money center banks and large regional banks, the upward move in long-term rates could help net interest margins over the long term. There was little evidence of much advantage to the banks from rising long-term rates during the second quarter. But what the banks really look forward to is a parallel rise in interest rates, which cannot take place until the Fed begins raising the federal funds rate.
The KBW Bank Index (I:BKX) ended the session up 0.5%, closing at 66.77 and pulling back quite a bit from earlier gains. All but six of the 24 index components ended with gains.
Looking ahead to 2016, KBW analyst Christopher Mutascio in a report published late Tuesday estimated that Bank of America's (BAC) earnings could rise to $1.95 a share, based on the "midpoint" of two scenarios for "normalized" earnings. Using this approach, KBW said that Bank of America and JPMorgan Chase (JPM) were the cheapest stocks relative to 2016 earnings estimates, among 11 large-cap banks covered by the firm.
Other Economic News
Automated Data Processing early on Tuesday said the U.S. economy added 200,000 private-sector jobs during July, increasing slightly from 198,000 in June. The June figure was revised upward from 188,000. As usual, most of the job growth was in services, with 45,000 new positions categorized as trade/transportation services, while professional/business positions increased by 49,000. There were 22,000 construction jobs added during July, while manufacturing jobs declined by 5,000.
Second-Quarter GDP and Major RevisionsThe Department of Commerce released its advance estimate for U.S. gross domestic product growth, which came in at an annual rate of 1.7% during the second quarter, which was much higher than the revised rate of 1.1% for the first quarter. The Commerce Department in June had released its third estimate for first-quarter growth, which was much higher at 1.8%, but the department's Bureau of Economic Analysis in the meantime completed a "comprehensive revision" of GDP figures going back to 1929. The second estimate for second-quarter GDP growth will be released on Aug. 29. "The increase in real GDP in the second quarter primarily reflected positive contributions from personal consumption expenditures (PCE), exports, nonresidential fixed investment, private inventory investment, and residential investment that were partly offset by a negative contribution from federal government spending," the Commerce Department said in its press release. The change in GDP calculation methodology included "the recognition of new forms of fixed investment." The changes led to a major revision of the "current dollar GDP" for 2012, increasing it by $559.9 billion. "$526.0 billion of this upward revision resulted from definitional changes," according to the Commerce Department.
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