You don't have to be an expert technical analyst to figure out what's going on in shares of
Newcastle Investment (
NCT) -- a quick glance at the chart will do. NCT has been in an uptrend since the end of December, rallying as it got pushed by tailwinds in the real estate sector and then spun off its residential financing unit into
New Residential Investment (
NRZ) in May.
Adjusting shares of NCT for the spinoff gives us the chart above.
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As you might expect, the best time to be a buyer in NCT is on a bounce off of support. Buying off a support bounce makes sense for two big reasons: It's the spot where shares have the furthest to move up before they hit resistance, and it's the spot where the risk is the least (because shares have the least room to move lower before you know you're wrong).
The fact that NCT has managed to clear its previous swing high from May speaks volumes about this stock's
right now. Historically, high relative strength tends to continue to outperform the market for another three to 10 months. That puts NCT owners in a good position for the second part of 2013.